Overview of sector fund positions: ranking still ranks first in the industry, with a decline month on month. 2021 fund four seasons reported that the proportion of heavy food and beverage continued to decline, the ratio of 0.23pct decreased to 14.77%, the main proportion of food comprehensive (small food) and sub high-end liquor was heavily reduced. The proportion of Baijiu Baijiu was -0.09pct to 12.37%, and the food chain was -0.17pct to 0.33%. In 2021q4, the proportion of excess positions in the food and beverage sector decreased slightly. In terms of horizontal comparison, the proportion of heavy positions still ranks first in the whole industry.
Baijiu sector: the proportion of distribution has slipped, high-end targets are more popular. 2021Q4 Baijiu heavy warehouse ratio -0.09pct to 12.37%, the proportion of the super matching ring ratio and the proportion of the same decline. On the specific target, the position of Baijiu liquor accounted for 7 seats, including Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) , ranking the same as Q3. On the specific target, high-end Baijiu, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) live in the top three of the fund, but the positions have been adjusted, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) is +0.32pct to 4.88%, ranking first. The ranking of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rose from No. 4 to No. 3, but the proportion of heavy positions increased from -0.23pct to 2.31% month on month; The ranking of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) rose from 8th to 5th, and the proportion of heavy positions increased from + 0.35pct to 1.92% month on month; In the Baijiu Baijiu, the high rate liquor enterprises represented by the high-end liquor enterprises generally reduced their positions. The proportion of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) and Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) heavy duty ratio was -0.17pct, -0.10pct, -0.11pct and -0.07pct.
Popular products: beer was added and other categories were reduced. In 2021q4, the decline in the proportion of popular products was significantly less than that of heavy fund positions. The proportion of heavy fund positions increased from -0.14pct to 2.41% month on month, continuing the downward trend in Q3 month on month. The market value of popular products accounted for -0.01pct to 2.22% month on month in a stock market. In the molecular sector, the proportion of heavy positions of beer, dairy products, seasoning fermented products and food comprehensive funds was 0.70%, 0.96%, 0.16% and 0.33% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.13pct, -0.03pct, -0.04pct and -0.09pct respectively. Specifically, in terms of the target, food and beverage positions accounted for three of the top 10 in the mass market segment, namely Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , of which Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) replaced Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) among the top 10, China Resources beer increased by one place to No. 9 on a month on month basis, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) heavy position ratio + 0.03pct to 0.90% on a month on month basis, and China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) were + 0.07pct and + 0.06pct on a month on month basis, with heavy position ratios of 0.24% and 0.21% respectively.
Analysis of heavy position stocks: the number of sector seats decreased month on month, and the ranking of heavy positions of maowulu increased steadily. Among the top 20 positions held by Q4 fund, the target stocks of food and beverage heavy positions decreased by 1 to 5 seats compared with Q3, and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) fell behind. Among the five seats, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) still ranked first, and the proportion of heavy positions increased month on month, from + 0.31pct to 4.88% compared with Q3; The ranking of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) rose from No. 4 to No. 3, but the proportion of heavy positions increased from -0.23pct to 2.31% month on month; The ranking of Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) further rose from No. 8 to No. 5, and the proportion of heavy positions increased from + 0.35pct to 1.92% month on month; The ranking of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) decreased by 2 places compared with Q3 and returned to the 12th place. The proportion of heavy positions decreased by 0.17pct to 1.24% month on month; Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) the proportion of heavy positions increased slightly month on month, and the ranking increased by 1 place; Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ranked 21st on the list of top 20 heavyweight stocks.
Investment recommendations: Baijiu sector in the current value allocation area, the first real estate wine sector, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) , Gujing, Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , and optimistic about the long-term distribution value of Mao five Lu Fen. With the recovery of demand in the consumer industry and the transfer of cost side, the operation of Volkswagen products company is expected to continue to improve. The core recommends Qianhe Condiment And Food Co.Ltd(603027) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Qingdao Richen Food Co.Ltd(603755) , Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) , Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) , Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , and pays attention to the business changes of Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Sichuan Teway Food Group Co.Ltd(603317) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) and other companies; The ton price of beer sector is expected to accelerate upward. Core recommendations: Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) .
Risk tip: the repeated epidemic has led to the recovery of China’s demand less than expected; The price of raw materials fluctuates greatly; High end wine prices fluctuated sharply.
