Market Review
In January 2022 (up to the closing on January 25, 2022), CSI 300 rose or fell by – 5.30%, the automobile industry rose or fell by – 8.92%, and CITIC first-class 29 industry ranked 22nd. In the subdivided industries, auto parts (- 6.58%) ranked first, and special purpose vehicles (- 12.13%) ranked last.
Industry Review
Automobile: in December, automobile production and sales recovered significantly, with a large increase in output. The monthly production and sales volume were 2.9072 million and 2.7859 million respectively, with a month on month increase of + 12.48% and + 10.48% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of + 2.35% and – 1.60% respectively.
Passenger cars: the production and sales volume of passenger cars were 2526900 and 2421600 respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 13.24 and + 10.47% respectively, a year-on-year ratio of + 8.39% and + 1.96% respectively. The monthly production and sales volume were 108.49% and 105.40% respectively in the same period in 2019. The chip supply improved. The production and sales volume of passenger cars improved year-on-year and warmed up for many consecutive months. Specifically: 1) the monthly sales of cars, SUVs and passenger cars increased year-on-year, while the monthly sales of MPV and crossover passenger cars decreased year-on-year. Among them, A00, A0 and B-class cars; The monthly sales volume of class C MPV and class B and C SUV increased year-on-year, among which the monthly sales volume of class A00 car increased rapidly; 2) Independent brands, American brands and German brands increased year-on-year, Japanese and Korean brands decreased year-on-year, and American, German and Korean brands recovered rapidly; 3) The monthly sales volume of luxury cars continued to decline year-on-year, but the decline narrowed rapidly, and the year-on-year performance was weaker than the overall performance of the passenger car market in the same period.
Commercial vehicles: the monthly production and sales of commercial vehicles were 380300 and 364400 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 7.69% and + 10.53% respectively, a year-on-year increase of – 25.31% and – 20.12% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of + 6.51pct and + 10.08pct respectively. The annual cumulative production and sales of commercial vehicles were 4.6743 million and 4.7933 million respectively, with a year-on-year cumulative output of – 10.65% and a year-on-year cumulative sales of – 6.62%. The cumulative production and sales decreased year-on-year compared with the previous month.
New energy vehicles: in December, the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles were 518000 and 530900 respectively, with a month on month increase of + 13.30% and + 18.02% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of + 120.05% and + 113.94% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached a new high, and the production and sales maintained a high-speed growth year-on-year.
Listed companies: the supply of the industry has warmed up, the overall output began to pick up, and the sales volume was lower than the growth rate of output year-on-year. Among them, SAIC, GAC and great wall increased significantly month on month, and GAC and great wall increased significantly year-on-year. It is expected that the sales volume of the overall automobile market will turn positive year-on-year in the future, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles will continue to increase significantly.
Investment advice
In the short term: in the industry, according to the data of China Automobile Association, in 2021, the production and sales of 26.082 million and 26.275 million vehicles increased by 3.4% and 3.8% year-on-year. The export of automobiles was 2.015 million, with a year-on-year increase of 100%. Among them, the export of new energy automobiles was 310000, with a year-on-year increase of 300%. In the market, the rise in raw material prices superimposed the end of the annual cycle of new energy at the end of the year, and the recent decline in the new energy sector with high valuation was more obvious. In the near future, it is suggested to pay attention to the recovery of passenger vehicle enterprises greatly affected by chips in the early stage and core parts enterprises, such as: Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Xiamen Faratronic Co.Ltd(600563) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) .
Risk tip: China’s economic growth is lower than expected; The overseas covid-19 pneumonia epidemic continued to spread.
