Analysis of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile sales in 21 years. According to the data of traffic compulsory insurance, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles reached 2.87 million in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 158%. Among them, there were 2.37 million pure electric vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 161%; There were 502000 plug-ins, a year-on-year increase of 147%, accounting for about 17%. In the past 22 years, with the introduction of new hybrid products by traditional OEMs, the proportion of plug-in sales is expected to increase.
In 2021, China’s non operating personal market accounted for 78%, an increase of 7pct compared with 20 years, and the operating market was further compressed to 11%, a decrease of 5pct compared with 20 years. In terms of sales regions, the sales of China’s top ten cities accounted for 39% in 2021, down 9pct from 20 years ago. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are still the main sales cities of new energy vehicles, but their proportion has decreased. The popularity of new energy vehicles in non restricted cities below the second and third tier mainly depends on small scooters such as Wuling Hongguang mini and plug-in hybrid models with high cost performance. The penetration of high-end pure electric vehicles is relatively slow.
Industry trends: a number of listed companies released performance forecasts for 2021. Last week, the share price of new energy automobile industry chain company continued to adjust, and the net value of new energy theme fund fell; Ten ministries and commissions issued opinions on the implementation of charging infrastructure service guarantee.
Investment suggestion: with the strengthening of policy and auto enterprises, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the global market is ushering in a new round of acceleration, and the industry boom is rising. It is suggested to pay attention to the main line of new forces represented by Tesla and the catch-up process of new models such as Volkswagen, and recommend leading and second-line elastic targets. For the whole vehicle, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (2333. HK) and Geely Automobile (0175. HK) are highly recommended; In terms of battery materials, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) are recommended; In terms of motor electric control, it is recommended to pay attention to Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) ; For lithium battery equipment, it is recommended to pay attention to Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) ; In terms of lithium and cobalt, it is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Risk tips: 1. The growth rate of electric vehicle production and sales slows down. With the continuous growth of the production and sales base of new energy vehicles, it will be more and more difficult to maintain a high growth rate, and the introduction of mainstream models for the public has become the key; 2. The price war in the industrial chain intensified. The continuous decline of subsidies and the continuous investment of new production capacity have led to the pressure of price reduction in all links of the industrial chain; 3. The influx of overseas competitors accelerated. With the growth of the Chinese market and the dilution of subsidy policies, the pace of overseas giants entering the Chinese market is accelerating, which has a new impact on the industrial pattern.
