Key points:
Traditional Chinese Medicine II fell 7.81% last week. Affected by industrial events and policies, the pharmaceutical sector made a comprehensive correction
Last week, pharmaceutical biology closed at 10395.03 points, down 7.19%; Traditional Chinese Medicine II closed at 7835.95 points, down 7.81%; Chemical pharmaceutical closed at 11709.92 points, down 5.06%; Biological products closed at 10819.2 points, down 10.64%; Pharmaceutical business closed at 6118.06 points, down 6.44%; Medical devices closed at 9327.77 points, down 8.87%; Medical services closed at 10175.57 points, down 5.36%. Affected by industrial events and policies such as the promotion of the seventh batch of national mining, the pharmaceutical sector made a comprehensive correction.
From the performance of traditional Chinese medicine companies, the top companies are: Jinghua Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002349) , Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300039) , Jilin Aodong Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(000623) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) ; Companies with low performance include: Gansu Longshenrongfa Pharmaceutical Industry Co.Ltd(300534) , Hunan Hansen Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002412) , Yabao Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600351) , Guizhou Xinbang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002390) , Kunming Longjin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002750) .
Traditional Chinese medicine PE (TTM) decreased by 2.92x and Pb (LF) decreased by 0.26x
Last week, the PE of traditional Chinese medicine sector was 34.57x, the maximum value of PE in recent year was 39.7x, and the minimum value was 28.78x; At present, Pb is 3.18x, the maximum value of Pb in recent year is 3.56x, and the minimum value is 2.57x. PE in traditional Chinese medicine sector decreased by 2.92x and Pb by 0.26x, which is higher than the median level in recent one year. The premium rate of traditional Chinese medicine sector relative to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 153.65%.
The upward trend of Chinese herbal medicine market is obvious, and the price continues to rise slightly
Last week, the total price index of traditional Chinese medicine was 211.04, up 0.9 percentage points month on month. In terms of varieties, the twelve categories showed seven increases and five decreases year-on-year, and the price index of mineral medicinal materials still led the increase. Recently, the Chinese herbal medicine market has an obvious upward trend, especially the mineral herbal medicine continues to rise. The Spring Festival is coming next week, and the markets of traditional Chinese medicine are closed one after another. The price may fluctuate slightly and is expected to rise slightly.
The seventh batch of national mining began to report the volume, paying attention to the leading enterprises in the subdivided field of traditional Chinese medicine
Joint procurement issued the “report on the number of purchases related to the scope of drug centralized procurement organized by the seventh batch of countries”
According to the “notice”, it means the prelude to the seventh batch of national mining. In the list of varieties released this time, there are 58 varieties and 208 product specifications in total. The specific schedule is: the volume reporting will be officially launched on January 26 this week, and the medical institutions will submit the data before 24:00 on February 16, and submit the data to the joint procurement department after the provinces complete the volume reporting review before 17:00 on February 25. It is expected that the formal procurement plan will be issued in March, the formal quotation, bid opening and selection of supply market will be made from April to may, and may be implemented from June to July. The seventh batch of Guocai has formed a certain suppression on the pharmaceutical sector in the short term. We still maintain our previous prediction on the progress of centralized procurement of traditional Chinese medicine. The centralized procurement of traditional Chinese patent medicine is expected to be implemented in a large scale in 2022, especially in large dosage provinces, and then the formula particles are expected to start gradually this year.
But on the whole, the policy support for the traditional Chinese medicine industry is still large.
Policy support is the biggest catalyst for the development of traditional Chinese medicine industry in 2022. On the demand side, the rigid demand characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry and the upgrading of pharmaceutical consumption jointly support the steady growth of the demand of the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the policy side, a series of favorable policies have been formed to promote the innovation of traditional Chinese medicine, the development of formula particles, the support of medical insurance and payment policies, and the continuous addition of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces can not exceed 25%, bringing policy dividends and new demand to the traditional Chinese Medicine industry. The unique advantage of “preventing disease” brings development opportunities to the traditional Chinese medicine industry. On the performance side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry walked out of the low point and showed a marginal improvement trend. On the valuation side, the traditional Chinese medicine industry still has certain valuation advantages after valuation repair. “Policy + pharmaceutical consumption upgrading + performance improvement + valuation advantage” jointly constructs investment opportunities for the traditional Chinese medicine industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the areas of policy encouragement and policy haven.
(1) pay attention to the innovation of modern traditional Chinese medicine, and pay attention to the innovation targets of modern traditional Chinese medicine with strong R & D strength and layout of large categories (large market: cardio brain Management + fast growth: pediatric medicine);
(2) pay attention to the advantages of brand traditional Chinese medicine, formula and raw materials, and jointly build a moat of brand traditional Chinese medicine;
(3) benefit from consumption upgrading, and pay attention to the subject matter of industrial chain extension and strong brand advantage.
Risk tips
(1) stricter industrial policies;
(2) industry and listed company performance fluctuation risk.
