Overseas supply: the European energy crisis is spreading, and overseas aluminum and zinc production is seriously reduced. In the context of energy transformation, the European natural gas crisis spread, the electricity price remained high, and the aluminum and zinc smelting enterprises suffered serious losses. The output reduction capacity of aluminum / zinc in Europe was 840000 tons and 460000 tons respectively, accounting for 1.1% and 3.2% in the world. Under the tense situation between the United States and Russia, the supply of natural gas in Europe will remain tight in the future. The trend of energy transformation is difficult to change. In the future, the high fluctuation of electricity price in Europe may become the norm, and the interference of aluminum and zinc supply will often occur.
China's supply: capacity utilization has picked up, and capacity ceiling constraints still exist. On the supply side, the electrolytic aluminum industry implemented reduction substitution, with a compliance capacity of 45.54 million tons and a clear ceiling. In 2022, China's energy consumption control will be relaxed, and the production and re production capacity will increase. It is expected that the electrolytic aluminum will be completed in 2022, with a production capacity of 1.875 million tons and a re production capacity of 1.667 million tons, a total of 3.542 million tons. In 2021, the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 91%, which was at a historical high. With the resumption of production and the release of completed production capacity, the utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum production capacity will rise. However, the pressure of local governments to reduce energy consumption is still on, there is still great uncertainty about the recovery of production capacity, and the utilization rate of production capacity is at a historical high. In 2022, the supply is increased or limited, and the output is expected to increase by 3%, with an increase of about 1.1 million tons. At present, China's aluminum storage inventory is about 550000 tons. Under the condition of low reserves, it is difficult to increase the abandoned reserves in 2022, which is expected to be flat; The supply of overseas electrolytic aluminum is tight and it is difficult to open the import window. It is expected that the import will decrease by 200000 tons in 2022 and the supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase by 900000 tons.
China's demand: steady growth policy opens up demand space. On the demand side, there is great downward pressure on China's economy, and steady growth has become the theme of 2022. The completion of houses in the downstream of aluminum, transportation, power and other fields may blossom in an all-round way, and the demand space will be opened. 1) The completion cycle of construction and real estate is still in progress, and the real estate policy is relaxed. Under the "three red lines", real estate enterprises will accelerate the completion and sales, and the demand for aluminum in the construction field will improve, with an expected increase of about 500000 tons; 2) In terms of transportation, the shortage of automobile cores has eased, the sales volume has bottomed out, the new energy vehicles continue to increase, the trend of automobile lightweight has accelerated, the aluminum demand in the automobile market has increased by about 500000 tons, and the infrastructure development will also drive the increase of rail transit investment; 3) The increase of installed capacity of power electronics and power supply will drive the upward investment of power grid. The investment plan of State Grid is 501.2 billion yuan, a record high. The construction of scenery base will increase UHV investment. It is expected that the demand for UHV aluminum will increase by 90000 tons, the profits of photovoltaic operators will be higher, and the installed capacity will rise sharply, which is expected to bring an increase of 250000-300000 tons; 4) Export: with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, it is expected that overseas demand will begin to peak and exports may decline. We are concerned about the cancellation of value-added tax rebate. Due to the improvement of the competitiveness of Chinese aluminum enterprises and the strong cost transfer ability, there will be impact in the short term and little long-term impact. It is expected that the export of aluminum will be reduced by 100000 tons in 2022.
Supply and demand balance: there will be a gap in 2022. It is estimated that the demand for electrolytic aluminum will increase by about 1.2 million tons in 2022, with an increase gap of 300000 tons, an excess of 190000 tons in 2021 and a gap of 110000 tons in 2022.
Investment suggestion: the supply and demand pattern of electrolytic aluminum industry is improving. We suggest focusing on Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) .
Risk tip: the supply side releases more than expected, the demand is less than expected, and the cost rises sharply
