\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779)
Events
On the evening of January 26, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: it is expected that the revenue in 2021 will be 4.632 billion yuan, an increase of 54% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.199 billion yuan, an increase of 64% at the same time; The sales volume was 11000 tons, an increase of about 40% at the same time, all of which came from medium and high-grade wine.
Key investment points
The performance met expectations and grew steadily in the fourth quarter
According to the performance express, we expect the revenue of 2021q4 to be 1.21 billion yuan, an increase of 14.2% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan, a decrease of 13.5%.
According to the sales volume of 11000 tons in 2021, an increase of 40% at the same time; Then the corresponding ton price of the company is 421000 yuan / ton, an increase of 10.6% at the same time. The company continues to increase both volume and price. We expect the revenue of zhenniang No. 8 and well platform decoration to account for about 90%, and the revenue of collection masters to increase steadily.
Master of momentum collection, when the share repurchase is in progress
In November 2021, the company adjusted the price of the collection master edition. The group purchase price of the 52 degree 500ml collection master edition was increased by 50 yuan / bottle, and the retail price was increased by 200 yuan / bottle; The group purchase price of the 38degree 500ml collection master edition increased by 40 yuan / bottle, the retail price increased by 100 yuan / bottle, and the recommended retail price of the 52degree new product increased to 1399 yuan, further strengthening the determination of the collection to enter high-end wine.
As of December 31, 2021, the company has repurchased 992400 shares, accounting for about 0.2% of the total share capital. The maximum repurchase price is 128.50 yuan / share, the minimum price is 111.83 yuan / share, and the total amount paid is 119 million yuan. It is expected that the company will implement equity incentive as soon as possible.
Hold high and fight high, and wait for the effect in 2022
In July 2021, the company promoted 25 distributors in 24 provinces to set up high-end Baijiu Sales Co., Ltd., general manager Chen, general manager of the distributor, luo general, chairman of the board of directors, and formed the fate community with dealers, accelerating the national channel construction, promoting the high-end strategy to effectively land in various regions, focusing on the collection and above products, and upgrading the collection. At present, when the high-end liquor business division is in progress, it is expected that there will be obvious results in 2022.
The company continues to implement the high-end strategy, focusing on two aspects: first, marketing: the company continues to cultivate eight core markets and further promote regional differentiated marketing; Optimize the distribution of dealers, develop group buying dealers, invest customized resources, promote the activities of famous enterprises and banks, and promote the growth of group buying business; Continue to implement the digital strategy and seek breakthroughs in e-commerce business. Second, in terms of brand building, the company sponsored the national treasure and tennis tour to help the high-end brand; Deeply participate in the national sugar and wine fair and successfully create a brand home atmosphere; Deepen the innovation and reform of digital marketing and strengthen the coverage of market communication.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company’s continued development of high-end brand, focusing on the master of collection, focusing on the top eight core markets, and creating one of the top brands of Luzhou Baijiu liquor. According to the performance forecast, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 2.46/3.20/3.97 yuan (the previous values were 2.54/3.34/4.13 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 43 / 33 / 26 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, consumption dragged down by the epidemic, the operation of collection masters was less than expected, and the performance of the top eight markets was less than expected.
