\u3000\u3000 Zhejiang Supor Co.Ltd(002032) (002032)
Revenue maintained steady growth, optimistic about the improvement of long-term competitive advantage, and maintained the "buy" rating
The company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the total revenue in 2021 will be 21.585 billion yuan (+ 16.07%), and the revenue in 2021q4 will be 5.920 billion yuan (+ 11.87%); In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was about 1.877 ~ 2.013 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.67% ~ 9.03%. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 636 ~ 772 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 16.90% ~ + 0.87%. Considering that the price of raw materials is still at a relatively high level, we lowered our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.984/2357/2696 billion (previously predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 2.109/24.30/2.790 billion), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 2.45/2.91/3.33, and the current share price will be 22.2/18.7/16.4 times that of PE. Considering the steady progress of the company's channel reform and category expansion, the long-term advantage is expected to improve and maintain the "buy" rating.
The effect of benefiting from channel reform + product expansion is significant. It is expected that domestic sales will maintain stable growth and export sales are expected to maintain good growth
(1) domestic sales business: the revenue is expected to maintain a stable growth compared with the same period, and the online channel is expected to maintain a steady growth under the channel reform from distribution to direct sales. Magic mirror data shows that in 2021, the company's online shopping sales of kitchen appliances were + 11.55% year-on-year, and that in 2021q4 was + 6.03% year-on-year. In addition, the company's product expansion has achieved remarkable results. In 2021, the company's online shopping sales of household appliances were + 55.18% year-on-year, and the sales of 2021q4 were + 92.95% year-on-year; According to ovicloud, the company's online sales of cleaning appliances in 2021 were + 58.24% year-on-year, of which 2021q4 sales were + 52.63% year-on-year. (2) Export business: it is estimated that the company's associated export with SEB will be 7.027 billion yuan (+ 28.8%) in 2021, of which the associated export is expected to be 1.436 billion yuan (+ 15%) from October 27, 2021 to the end of 2021. Under the background of steady transfer of SEB orders, it is expected that export sales will still maintain a good growth.
Product structure optimization + channel reform bonus + raw material price stabilization and decline, and the performance recovery elasticity is large
Looking forward to 2022, the domestic sales industry will benefit from a high boom, continue to be optimistic about the performance growth driven by high gross profit products such as life / cleaning appliances, add channel reform dividends, boost online profits and stabilize the price of raw materials, and the domestic sales profitability is expected to be further improved. The export business is expected to maintain stable growth by virtue of its competitive advantage, and its profitability is expected to gradually recover driven by a new round of pricing adjustment. Overall, the company's short-term performance recovery elasticity is large.
Risk tips: price rise of raw materials, transfer of SEB orders overseas, exchange rate fluctuation, etc
