\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) (300617)
Non net profit deducted in 2021 increased by 35.97% - 57.76% year-on-year, and the performance growth was in line with expectations
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company of 190-215 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 43.53% - 62.42%; It is estimated that the non net profit deducted in 2021 will be 156-181 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.97% - 57.76%, and the overall performance is in line with expectations. The company's equity incentive fee in 2021 is expected to be 38 million yuan, which will affect the deduction of non net profit of the company to a certain extent. It is expected that with the reduction of the company's equity incentive fee in 2022, the company's profitability will be improved accordingly. We maintain the company's profit forecast for 2021-2023 unchanged. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-2023 will be 208 / 349 / 480 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 1.24/2.08/2.86 yuan / share in 2021-2023, and the current share price corresponding to PE is 51.7/30.8/22.4 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Gil orders are in good condition, and multiple benefits open up upward space
The company's 571 million orders for Caoshan project and 179 million orders for Nanjing Yanziji project are gradually recovered according to the construction progress. Only part of the revenue can be recognized in 2021. At present, the company has relatively abundant orders on hand. We believe that multiple favorable factors such as good order expansion, signing of strategic cooperation agreement with lvfa group and optimization of industrial competition pattern will jointly help the company open up space: the company signed a new order of 25.78 million yuan with Shandong Huaxing Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. in December 2021, with the gradual implementation of subsequent new orders, The company's performance continues to grow rapidly in 2022, with great certainty; The company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with China lvfa Investment Group Co., Ltd. in November 2021. Lvfa group is one of the few central enterprises operating land resource revitalization business in China, and the cooperation with lvfa will provide greater help for market development; The establishment of China Electric Equipment Group has also improved the industry competition pattern to a certain extent, created a more benign industry ecology, and further benefited the company's follow-up order expansion.
Smart modular substation has obvious advantages and is expected to become a new growth pole
The intelligent modular substation solution of the company takes the intelligent equipment of primary and secondary integration as the module, and constructs the substation through factory production prefabrication and on-site modular assembly. On the one hand, it can shorten the construction cycle, on the other hand, it can save valuable land resources in the city. The company can save a lot of space compared with traditional substations by virtue of the integrated development transformer technology, In the context of increasingly scarce urban space, value highlights. In the future, with the implementation of multiple scenarios such as urban communities, IDC, large chemical plants and metal smelters, smart modular substation is expected to become a new growth pole.
Risk warning: downstream demand is less than expected; Overseas market expansion was less than expected.
