\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696)
Event: in 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 484 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.07%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 430 million yuan after deducting non profits, a year-on-year increase of 73.62%. Q4 company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 184 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 89.04%.
The performance of projection leader Q4 exceeded expectations, and the market share of the leader increased steadily. According to magic mirror data, under the pressure of Q4’s high base in 2020, the sales volume of Q4 Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) Taobao and JD online increased by 69.60/44.55% year-on-year respectively, and the total sales volume of JD + Taobao + Suning + pinduoduo online platform increased by + 50.56% year-on-year. During the double 11 this year, Gmv of Jimi’s whole network exceeded 800 million, with a year-on-year increase of more than 90%. In terms of market share, the average market share of JD platform projector of Q4 company reached 39.4%, an increase of 4.0pct compared with 20q4. We believe that at present, the overall penetration rate of projectors is still in the stage of rapid improvement, and the market share of the company, as an industry leader, still has room to improve.
Broaden the product matrix, improve the user experience and diversify the development of platforms outside China. In terms of products, the company launched a new audio product in cooperation with Harman Caton on December 1, providing intelligent projection supporting products. While broadening the company’s product matrix, it provides consumers with a more comprehensive audio-visual experience, attracts more consumers who pay attention to the product experience and consolidates the original customers. In terms of channel, double eleven period, except Jingdong and Tmall channels, the company’s official website direct sales GMV increased by nearly 80% compared with the previous year, while the GMV platform increased by more than 13 times compared with 618, and the total number of live broadcast tiktok was over 1 million. The promotion of multi-channel de was beneficial to touch more potential consumers. In the overseas market, in October, the company launched the new overseas laser TV product aura, and the product matrix was further completed. In the future, with the promotion of education in the overseas market, the company’s overseas business may grow rapidly.
Adjust the product structure and promote the gross profit margin with the introduction of self polishing machine. Facing the problems of chip shortage and cost increase, on the one hand, the company adjusted its product structure and pricing strategy. In 21 years, it successively launched two high-end products, h3s and rspro2. The sales volume of double 11 exceeded 250 million / 80 million yuan respectively. The average price of Jimi projector on Q4 JD platform increased by 14.2% year-on-year. On the other hand, the introduction of the company’s self-developed polishing machine is smooth, and the company’s gross profit margin is expected to be further improved in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we believe that short-term factors such as chip shortage, rising raw material costs and shipping pressure will be gradually improved, and we are optimistic about the long-term trend of increasing industry penetration and product upgrading. Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) as the industry leader, the market share remains the first for a long time. The product matrix covers the whole price range, which can meet the needs of different customer groups. It has obvious technical advantages in optical and mechanical design and algorithm optimization. It is expected to achieve sustainable growth in the long term in the future. We estimate that the income in the 21st-23rd year will be 4.066/59.80/8.270 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.8/47.1/38.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 484 / 744 / 1067 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 80.2 / 53.7 / 43.3%; Corresponding to pe49 44 / 32.17/22.45x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: the price of raw materials continues to rise, the competition in the intelligent projection industry intensifies, the shortage of chips intensifies, the company’s new product launch is less than expected, and the company’s channel development is less than expected.
