\u3000\u3000 Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) (301080)
Event: the company issued the announcement of annual performance increase in 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 382-402 million yuan (+ 55% – 63%), net profit attributable to parent company of 170-187 million yuan (+ 47% – 61%), and net profit attributable to non parent company of 163-180 million yuan (+ 40% – 54%).
Comments:
The company’s performance met expectations, and the company’s non covid-19 business maintained rapid growth. The company expects that the sales revenue of covid-19 virus epidemic prevention related products will be 87-97 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 20% – 33% (66 million yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 32.87%). In 2021, the company will accelerate the response speed to covid-19 virus mutant strain and develop high-quality antibodies, antigens, kits and other products in a short time for global scientific research and industrial customers, Help combat the epidemic research. The company estimates that the revenue of non covid-19 virus epidemic prevention related products will be 295-305 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 70% – 76%. Through the improvement of scientific research ability and product quality, the company’s market competitiveness will be continuously enhanced, the non covid-19 related revenue will continue to grow rapidly, and the company’s non covid-19 business revenue will increase from 47 million yuan in 2017 to 300 million yuan in 2021 (take the average value of the forecast), The compound annual growth rate was 58.8%. The gross profit margin is expected to be 91.2% and the net profit margin is expected to be 44.3%, continuing to maintain a high profit level.
The market of pharmaceutical recombinant protein biological scientific research reagent is broad, and the performance of the company at home and abroad is expected to achieve sustained growth. According to Frost & Sullivan’s prediction, the global market scale of recombinant protein biological research reagents will increase from 3.3 billion yuan in 2015 to 9.8 billion yuan in 2024 at a compound annual growth rate of 13%, and the corresponding market scale in China will increase from 400 million yuan in 2015 to 1.9 billion yuan in 2024 at a compound annual growth rate of 19%. In 2017, the company’s income in China and abroad was 12.1 million yuan and 35.1 million yuan respectively, and in 2020, the income in China and abroad was 35.1 million yuan and 169.3 million yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 85% and 69% respectively, and the company’s overseas business accounted for more than 60%. From the global and Chinese Biomedical investment and financing and the number of clinical phase I and other indicators, there is a strong demand for biomedical R & D outside China, which supports the rapid growth of drug recombinant protein biological reagent Market in terms of capital and project quantity in the future. As the impact of the overseas epidemic subsides, the promotion speed of overseas customer projects is expected to accelerate. At the same time, the company can further expand the markets of developed countries such as Europe, Japan and South Korea, which is expected to contribute more increment to the growth of the company’s overseas performance.
Profit forecast: we expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company’s revenue will be 392.0/540.0/750.0 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 59.1% / 37.8% / 38.9% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173.7/235.9/328.7 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 49.9% / 35.8% / 39.3% respectively. The latest closing price corresponding to PE is 70 / 51 / 37 times respectively. The company is deeply engaged in the field of drug target protein, constantly improving the product system and improving product quality. Under the background of strong demand for global drug R & D, the company’s performance outside China is expected to achieve sustained and rapid growth. It is covered for the first time and given a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: loss of customers; Sales are less than expected; New product development is not as expected; Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
