\u3000\u3000 Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) (300725)
Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) release the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, it is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 1.176 billion to RMB 1.227 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 15% - 20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 479 million yuan to 497 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 160% - 170%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 226 million to RMB 243 million, with a year-on-year increase of 30% - 40%.
Q4 is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 273 million to RMB 324 million in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of - 8% ~ 9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 37-55 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 12.7% ~ 31.3%, and the non net profit attributable to the parent company was 25-42 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 36.3% ~ 8.3%.
Viewpoint: the income is in line with the expectation, and the performance is lower than the expectation due to the multiple effects of transformation, Shangyu shutdown, expenses, exchange and capacity constraints. The revenue side meets expectations. The revenue of q1-q3 on the revenue side is 290 million, 340 million and 280 million respectively. The revenue range of Q4 is 273-324 million yuan, with a median value of 300 million yuan. It is improved compared with Q3, which is in line with expectations. The main reasons why q3-q4's single quarter revenue is lower than Q2's are the limited production capacity and the impact of the shutdown of Shangyu epidemic.
The profit side is lower than expected. The company's overall profit attributable to the parent company is 479-497 million yuan, of which there is a change in the fair value of 220 million Huishi. After deducting, the overall net profit attributable to the parent company is 260-277 million, with a median value of about 270 million, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%. Basically in line with expectations. However, the growth rate of Q4's net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 37-55 million yuan, with a median of 46 million yuan, lower than the previous expectation (the previous expectation was that Q4's net profit attributable to the parent company was the same as Q3, 61 million yuan).
We believe that there are several main impacts: 1) Shangyu Q4 has been suspended for about half a month due to the epidemic. 2) In the second half of 2021, the company's personnel expanded by more than 330 people, but the income has not been realized due to shutdown, and the salary and other expenses have increased. 3) The impact of exchange rate is estimated to be about 15 million. 4) Capacity is limited. Q3 has mentioned that the raised investment project is in the climbing stage, Huishi's new capacity has not been released yet, many early projects have been undertaken in the cdmo transformation stage, and the output value of single reactor is still climbing for the time being. If the exchange is added back, the overall Q4 profit will be more than 60 million, which is in line with Q3 and basically in line with expectations. The deduction end is the same. The median deduction value of Q4 is 46 million yuan, and 60 million yuan after adding back the impact of exchange. Considering the recruitment and bonus at the end of the year, it is basically in line with the expectation.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the business trend of the company is good, the API business will be gradually on the right track, the production capacity will be gradually released, and the incentive fee of the company will be reduced quarter by quarter. In the long run, the core competitiveness of Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) lies in realizing the realization of different directions (molecular blocks, cdmo, difficult to imitate drugs and innovative drugs) based on the understanding of R & D trends and chemical technology. In 2022, with the continuous release of production capacity, the company's revenue is expected to accelerate and return to more than 30% revenue growth. The incentive cost on the profit side is reduced, but the depreciation will increase with the release of production capacity. Therefore, we expect the profit growth to be slightly slower than the income growth.
In the next 3-5 years, we expect that the compound performance growth rate of the company is expected to remain above 35% or even higher. Among them, the small batch business of stock molecular blocks is expected to maintain rapid growth (about 30%). Projects entering commercialization bring additional increment. In terms of innovation, if some new molecular entities / lead compounds are selected, they can cooperate with other companies in research and development.
Profit forecast and investment rating. Based on the current business trend, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 488 million yuan, 388 million yuan and 544 million yuan respectively, with an increase of 164.7%, - 20.5% and 40.2% respectively. EPS is 2.44 yuan, 1.94 yuan and 2.72 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 41x, 52X and 37x respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the project in clinical stage has the risk of decline; Project fluctuation risk in commercialization stage; The implementation of macromolecular cdmo strategy is lower than the expected risk, etc
