\u3000\u3000 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (300979)
The performance forecast for the 21st year is expected by the supermarket. Huali announced its performance express for 21 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 2.63 ~ 2.91 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40% ~ 55%; The profit of Q4 alone was 633 ~ 915 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13% ~ 63%. Based on the performance forecast, Huali's performance in the fourth quarter slightly exceeded the previous market expectations and maintained a healthy growth momentum.
The growth rate of key customers has led in 21 years, and it is expected that key customers will continue to make efforts to maintain a high profit level in 22 years. In the first three quarters, the orders of the top five customers accounted for more than 93%. In the first three quarters, the growth rate (US dollar caliber) of Nike / Deckers / VF / puma / UA reached 49% / 58% / 9.4% / 24% / 69% respectively, and the orders of the top two customers Nike and Decker's reached 35% and 22% respectively in the first three quarters. We expect that orders from top customers in the whole year of 21 and 22 are still expected to maintain a similar high-speed growth trend. The rapid increase of orders from key customers helps the company to further play its scale effect and maintain the current high profit margin. On the one hand, Nike / Deckers and other leading brands have advantages in order price. On the other hand, the larger order volume will also help the company further improve plant efficiency and give full play to its scale advantage.
The production capacity maintains rapid growth, which is expected to continue to replace competitors and improve the market position. We expect the output of Huali to reach 200 million pairs in 21 years, an increase of more than 20% compared with 20 years. In the future, the company's capacity expansion in North Vietnam will be mainly through the capacity climbing of three factories in Weilin, Yongshan and Hongxin, Vietnam, and the extension of equipment utilization time under the two shift system. From 2022h2 to 2023, factories in Indonesia and Myanmar will also be put into operation one after another. Meanwhile, for Huali, the epidemic prevention and control has entered the normalization stage, the regular nucleic acid testing / third vaccination of factory workers have been carried out, and the company's Vietnam factory continues to maintain a high opening rate. Under efficient management, Huali has always maintained a stable production state compared with its competitors who have been affected by the epidemic and continue to be affected by problems such as insufficient operating rate and employee wage reduction. We expect that the company's production capacity is still expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% in 22 years.
We believe that as the company gradually becomes an important supplier of first-line / emerging running brands such as Nike / Hoka one / on running, the company's position in the industry is expected to continue to improve in 22 years. From the current order receiving situation, Huali's production capacity has become a high-quality resource that major brands are competing to seize. It has successively received orders from customers for 5 or even 8 years, which fully shows that the company has been fully recognized by customers.
Profit forecast and Valuation: as a global leader in sports shoe manufacturing, on the one hand, Huali has strong downstream demand, and its reputation for quality and delivery is also very outstanding. The company has become a solid backing for a few to undertake the continuous growth ambition of major customers, and is firmly optimistic about the long-term development of the company. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in the year of 21 / 22 / 23 to be RMB 2.74/35.0/4.38 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 46% / 28% / 24%, corresponding to the valuation of 35 / 27 / 22x. The company has prominent manufacturing barriers, clear growth path, sufficient orders and maintains the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic in northern Vietnam affects recruitment, and the labor cost rises sharply
