\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078)
The company issued a performance forecast for 2021.
In 2021, the company realized a total net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.85 ~ 3.12 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 45.92% ~ 59.75%; Among them, Q4 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 82 ~ 352 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 38.4% ~ 85.6%.
Affected by weak market demand and energy costs, the company's Q4 profit is under pressure.
Cultural paper: 1) demand side: Q4 social publishing orders have been in large quantities, but the boost to the overall demand is limited. The procurement of downstream dealers and printing factories is still based on rigid demand, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the inventory pressure of paper enterprises is still there; 2) Cost side: compared with Q3, Q4, on the one hand, the cost pressure caused by the fluctuation of coal and other energy prices still exists, but this part has been alleviated and improved month by month since November; On the other hand, the overall pulp price shows a downward trend, so on the whole, Q4 cost pressure is gradually released; 3) Supply side: with the orderly recovery of local power rationing and shutdown, the starting load of Q4 of paper enterprises gradually returned to the normal level, and the number of imported cultural paper decreased year-on-year from October to December, and the supply of cultural paper was in a reasonable range.
Box board paper: Q4 paper price rises first and then decreases. The price increase of large-scale paper mills in the early stage overdrafts the downstream demand. At present, the supply is in excess stage. Paper enterprises give up profits and promote sales under the pressure of high inventory. At the same time, the decline of raw material waste paper leads to insufficient cost support and downward pressure on paper price. Dissolved pulp: Q4 dissolved pulp price index continued to decline, with a decline of 9.46% from October to December. The overall market demand was weak and the trading was flat.
Guangxi's production capacity has been put into operation, and its scale and cost advantages will be further highlighted. The pulp and paper projects in Guangxi forestry pulp and paper integration project of the company, including 550000 tons of cultural paper, 120000 tons of household paper, chemical mechanical pulp, chemical pulp and other production lines, will be put into operation before the end of the year. After the phase I project is fully completed, the company's pulp and paper scale will exceed 10 million tons, the capacity market share and pulp self-sufficiency rate will continue to increase, and the company's production scale and cost advantages are expected to be further highlighted.
Investment advice.
At present, the company's fundamentals have bottomed out, and recently issued a new round of price increase letters under the influence of the rebound in pulp prices, announcing that the price of uncoated paper has increased by 200 yuan / ton since February, and will continue to increase the price by no less than 200 yuan / ton since March. In the short term, the cost pressure has been improved month by month. At present, the company takes the initiative to raise the price + change the production of some paper varieties to improve the supply and profitability; In the long run, the profit of cultural paper has hit the bottom, the clearing of small and medium-sized production capacity will be accelerated, and the industry pattern will continue to improve. The company has the cost advantage of multi paper species, large-scale and forest pulp paper integration. As a comprehensive papermaking leader, it is expected to benefit for a long time. We estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be 31.459/35.358/37.661 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 45.7% / 12.4% / 6.5% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.905/3.595/4.015 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 48.8% and 23.7% / + 11.7% respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials rose sharply and the production capacity was lower than expected.
