\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast and expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 820-890 million in 2021
The company released the performance forecast: in 2021, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 820-890 million (year-on-year + 50.87% ~ + 63.75%), deduct the non net profit of RMB 770-840 million (year-on-year + 50.20% ~ + 63.85%), and the performance continues to grow high. We believe that as the champion of the golden track of sensitive skin care, the logic of star large single products continues to be confirmed, and the extension of brands, channels and categories will bring new growth in the future. We keep the profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 832 / 11.43 / 1.55 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.97/2.70/3.66, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 82.7/60.2/44.4 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
In 2021, the annual performance is expected to continue high growth and the brand awareness of products will continue to improve
In 2021, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 820-890 million (year-on-year + 50.87% ~ + 63.75%); Among them, 2021q4 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 465-535 million yuan in a single quarter (year-on-year + 41.6% ~ + 62.9%), with continuous high growth. In terms of products, we expect that the company’s core products, such as moisturizing cream, sunscreen and so on, will continue to grow at a high level, while the new products will also contribute significantly to the repair and freeze-drying mask. Channel, we expect the company’s online Tmall self operated channel growth is steady, and vibrant channels such as the new channel are continuing tiktok. Overall: in 2021, the brand awareness of the company’s products will continue to improve, promote market development and drive the growth of sales scale; In addition, the company’s non recurring profits and losses (idle funds, cash management and government subsidies, etc.) totaled about 45-55 million in 2021.
The company is a leader in the field of sensitive muscle. The logic of large single products is continuously tested, and multi-brand and multi-channel are expected to be large-scale
The company is the champion of the golden track of sensitive skin care. In 2021, the sales of Winona, the main brand of double eleven, won the top 1 of domestic products; The new product, Winona, has been repairing the lyophilized mask. The total sales volume of the whole network is over 2 million boxes. In addition, the company’s new brands are also incubating continuously. Winona baby ranks the top 10 in tmall baby skin care category in sales on double 11. At the industry level, the regulation on the supervision and administration of cosmetics has been officially implemented since 2021, and the industry has entered the era of supervision 2.0. Under the background of stricter supervision, the head brands with strong product compliance and high-quality large single products are expected to benefit significantly. As the leader of the industry, the market share of the company is expected to continue to increase.
Risk tip: the expansion of new brands is not as expected; Channel expansion is less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
