\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) (600882)
Event:
On January 26, the company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 140-180 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 136.26-203.76%. It is expected to realize a net profit of 120-160 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 169.24-258.99%, slightly lower than the previous expectation.
Comments:
Excluding the impact of amortization of equity incentive, the growth of net profit is in line with expectations
The growth of the company's net profit was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the amortization of equity incentive expenses of 132 million yuan in 2021 and the increased impact of Q4 advertising. Excluding the impact of equity incentive amortization expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 272-312 million yuan, an increase of 361% - 429% year-on-year in 2020. At the same time, the company launched normal temperature cheese stick products at the end of Q3, opened the Spring Festival and increased marketing advertising investment, which is expected to have a short-term impact on sales expenses.
Normal temperature cheese sticks are on the rise to broaden the consumption scene
In the short term, the company launched normal temperature cheese sticks at the end of Q3 to open up incremental space. Low temperature cheese sticks have high requirements for cold chain conditions. Normal temperature cheese sticks can effectively get rid of the restrictions of transportation and storage conditions and low-temperature display shelves on product expansion. In the environment of intensified competition for low-temperature cheese sticks, exploring the normal temperature market is expected to open the second growth curve of the company. At the same time, the company launched normal temperature gift box products, opened up the consumption scene of spring festival gifts, and smoothed the quarterly revenue fluctuation that low-temperature cheese is difficult to make up.
From cheese industry to snack food industry
In the long run, after the company launched the normal temperature cheese stick, it gradually promoted its products to the offline market to further enhance its brand influence. At the same time, with the help of Mengniu's resource advantages in the whole industrial chain, through the help of milk source, technology, channel and platform, combined with its own brand foundation, the company complements their advantages and further realizes industrial synergy. It is expected to develop from cheese company to leisure food company in the future.
Profit forecast
It is expected that the company's promotion of normal temperature business will affect the sales expense rate in the short term and reduce the company's profit from 2021 to 2023; The corresponding current values are 0.33 respectively
The PE of the share price is 138 / 44 / 25 times. The company is still in a period of rapid growth. The compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the next two years will be 99%. The company will be given a PE valuation of 50 times in 2022, with a target price of 52 yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Risks of rising price of raw milk packaging materials, new products at room temperature falling short of expectations and capacity release falling short of expectations
