\u3000\u3000 Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) (301029)
Event: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 390-410 million yuan, yoy + 43.73% – 51.10%, and the central company of 400 million yuan, yoy + 47.42%; The net profit deducted from non parent company is 383-403 million yuan, yoy + 47.00-54.68%, and the central company is 393 million yuan, yoy + 50.84%. The company’s performance is in line with expectations.
21q4 performance forecast: we calculate according to the profits disclosed in the company’s announcement. In 2021, Q4 company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 83-103 million yuan, yoy-2.74% to + 20.64%, and the Central Bank of 93 million yuan, yoy + 8.95%.
We believe that although the Q4 growth rate of the company is slightly lower than the optimistic expectations of some markets, the annual net profit deduction still maintains a growth rate of more than 50%. In the future, under the obvious advantages of large space, competition Road, strong barriers and deep expansion, the company will still have a large room for growth and improvement in the future:
1. In depth business expansion. Products have different needs in different scenarios. At present, many products do not meet the needs of different scenarios. Compared with Mismi 2200W + SKU, the number of SKUs of the company still has great room for improvement.
2. Continuously optimize the cost rate. In 2020, Mismi’s revenue in China will be about 3.3 billion yuan, with sales of about 80-90 people, and the annual report of Dongguan Yiheda Automation Co.Ltd(301029) 20 will have about 369 sales personnel. After the gradual expansion of business, the expense rate is expected to continue to decrease;
3. Low volatility with the market. By comparing the growth rate of Mismi’s Japanese revenue and the growth rate of Japanese manufacturing capital investment in 10-18 years, we find that it is less relevant, indicating that in the case of abundant downstream fields, platform parts enterprises are less affected by the fluctuation of downstream market conditions.
Profit forecast: considering the slight decline in the prosperity of construction machinery and the fundamentals of the company, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 21-23 will be 4.0 (the former value is 4.2), 5.7 (the former value is 6.1) and 800 (the former value is 860) million yuan respectively, and the PE will be 79, 56 and 40x respectively. It is continuously recommended!
Risk tip: the development of automation parts industry is not as expected; Intensified market competition; New product development is not as expected; Impact of epidemic situation on business performance; The performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the company’s disclosure announcement
