\u3000\u3000 Zhongyin Babi Food Co.Ltd(605338) (605338)
Event: the company issued the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the operating income in the 21st year will be 1.35 billion yuan to 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 38.45% - 43.58% at the same time; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 305 million yuan to 315 million yuan, an increase of 73.82% - 79.52% at the same time; It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company is 145 million yuan to 155 million yuan, an increase of 12.42% - 20.17% at the same time.
The expansion of stores was increased, the performance of single stores continued to recover, and the group meal business increased in a high proportion. The company expects the operating revenue in the 21st year to be 1.35 billion yuan to 1.4 billion yuan, an increase of 38.45% - 43.58% at the same time. Quarter by quarter, the revenue of 21q1-q3 company is 250 million yuan, 340 million yuan and 380 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 131.8%, + 39.8% and + 25.3% respectively. The expected revenue of 21q4 is 380 million yuan to 430 million yuan, an increase of 18.0% - 33.7% at the same time. During the period, the company strengthened store expansion, accelerated the iteration of lunch and other new products, realized the continuous growth of the number of stores, the rapid recovery of single store performance and the high proportion growth of group meal business. In 22 years, the company is expected to accelerate the expansion of stores through endogenous + extension.
Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) changes in fair value increased the profit by 140-150 million yuan, and 21q4 deducted the net profit not attributable to the parent company, which became positive year-on-year. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 305 million yuan to 315 million yuan in 21 years, an increase of 73.82% - 79.52% at the same time. Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q1-q3 is 14 million yuan, 200 million yuan and 15 million yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is expected to range from 79 million yuan to 89 million yuan, an increase of 9.2% - 23.0% at the same time. Among them, as the company indirectly holds Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) shares through Tianjin Junzheng, the income from changes in fair value increases, and the net profit is expected to increase by 140-150 million yuan. Excluding non recurring profits and losses, the company deducted non attributable net profits of 13 million yuan, 44 million yuan and 43 million yuan respectively in 21q1-q3, and 44 million yuan to 54 million yuan in 21q4, an increase of 0.9% - 23.9% at the same time.
Investment suggestions:
The company actively embraces multi format operation, expands the dining channels of hospitals, schools, enterprises and institutions, and provides customized products and services; With the stable cost of pork, the gross profit margin of the company is expected to rise in the future, the operation of the same store will improve, and it is expected to continue high-quality development in the future. The company has perfect supply chain system, replicable single store model, premium brand effect, expandable production capacity and broad market space. We expect the net profit of the company to be 310 million yuan / 260 million yuan in 21-22 years, and the corresponding PE is 27x / 32x respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the opening progress is less than expected, the operation is less than expected, macroeconomic risks, etc. the performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, please take the annual report as the standard
