\u3000\u3000 Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450)
Key investment points
Event:
1. The company issued the performance forecast for 2021. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 1.45-1.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 89% - 115%. Among them, the net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.41-1.61 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100% - 128%.
2. The company issued an announcement on the forecast of daily connected transactions in 2022.
The performance in 2021 is slightly higher than expected, and the fourth quarter is expected to reach a new high of single quarter profit since the listing. According to the median value of the performance forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to reach 550 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 327% and a month on month increase of 9%, which is expected to reach a new high of single quarter profit since the listing of the company. It is mainly due to the continuous rapid and sustainable development of the lithium battery industry. The company continues to improve the governance system, optimize and update the management process, strengthen the company's core competitiveness, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and significantly improve the overall profitability.
The amount of newly signed equipment orders in 2021 is expected to exceed expectations, and the company expects to further increase in 2022. According to the company's announcement, the actual amount of equipment sales to related parties ( Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and its holding subsidiaries) in 2021 is expected to be 8.223 billion yuan (tax included), accounting for 39% of the actual amount of similar business, According to this calculation, the amount of orders excluding tax obtained by the company in 2021 reached 18.7 billion yuan (the VAT rate was 13%), a record high. The company expects that the amount of contracts signed with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022 is expected to reach 9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10% compared with the actual amount in 2021 and 38% compared with the expected value in 2021 (6.5 billion yuan). The overall new orders signed in 2022 are expected to achieve further growth.
Promote equity incentive. If the revenue and profit margin targets are achieved at the same time, the compound growth rate of net profit will reach 60%. Previously, the company has launched the equity incentive scheme in 2021. According to the performance unlocking conditions, if the revenue and profit margin indicators are achieved at the same time, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.406/23.20/3.163 billion respectively.
Benefiting from the wave of lithium battery production expansion, the orders in hand are full; Build a non-standard automation platform enterprise. The company is the global leader in lithium battery equipment. It is expected that the global lithium battery equipment market space will exceed 200 billion yuan in 2025, and the compound growth rate will reach 38% in the next five years. The company has set up eight business divisions. Taking advantage of the competitive advantages of platform companies, it is expected to copy the advanced R & D and management experience to other fields and become the leader of non-standard automation equipment.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.51/27.0/3.98 billion respectively, with a three-year compound growth rate of 73%, corresponding to 77 / 43 / 29 times of PE respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The production expansion of downstream lithium battery enterprises is lower than expected; New business expansion is lower than expected; High dependence on a single customer.
