\u3000\u3000 Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (603290)
Company announcement
1) it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be about 390 million yuan to 400 million yuan, an increase of 209 million yuan to 219 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 115.85% to 121.38%;
2) it is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 will be about 370 million yuan to 380 million yuan, which will increase by 215 million yuan to 225 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year increase of 138.07% to 144.51%.
Comments
1. The company’s performance exceeded market expectations. The company predicted that the median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 395 million, a year-on-year increase of + 118.6%; It is predicted that the median net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 will be 375 million, with a year-on-year increase of 141.5%; The single Q4 profit was 128 million and the single Q4 deduction non profit was 124 million, with a large quarter on quarter increase; In 2021, the company seized the market opportunity and continued to make breakthroughs in downstream industries, especially in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, energy storage and other industries. The company’s operating revenue achieved rapid growth. At the same time, the income share of the new energy industry will further increase compared with that in 2020;
2. The margin of production capacity tension eased and the downstream demand maintained a high growth: the company’s revenue and profit maintained a rapid growth in the past 21 years, and the revenue and profit growth was completed under the condition of the lack of production capacity in the whole semiconductor industry and the rising price of upstream OEM. Looking forward to the next year, it is expected that the margin of production capacity tension in the industry will ease, and the company will fully benefit from the downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic Business opportunities brought by the growth of demand in energy storage, charging pile and other fields;
3. Accelerated breakthroughs in IGBT in many fields: the market share of industrial control IGBT has been increasing; The supporting quantity of new energy vehicles continues to exceed expectations, the proportion of on-board IGBT continues to increase, the sixth generation 1200vigbt chip has achieved mass production on the 12 inch production line, the seventh generation vehicle specification 650V / 750vigbt chip has been successfully developed, and it is expected to start mass supply in 2022; Photovoltaic / energy storage IGBT is expected to usher in the inflection point of domestic substitution and increase the volume quickly: the company uses the modules and discrete devices of independent IGBT chips to start mass installation and application in China’s mainstream photovoltaic inverter customers. It is expected to kick off the domestic substitution of photovoltaic IGBT with billions of yuan in China next year and contribute a large revenue;
4. We believe that from the perspective of long-term cycle Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) in the next five years, the benefit industry space will grow (on the order of two) * the market share will increase (on the order of five) * the proportion of self-made chips will increase / the scale effect will increase the net interest rate, which corresponds to more than 10 times the growth potential of revenue and profit. After the path of copying IGBT modules before chips for SiC devices is completed from 2025 to 2030, The growth logic extends from 5 years to more than 10 years. In 22-23 years, the margin of capacity tension has eased, while the demand for IGBT from downstream new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, energy storage, charging piles and industrial control is increasing rapidly. As the industry leader, the company has high growth certainty. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by valuation switching at the end of the year.
Investment advice
We believe that from the perspective of long-term cycle Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) in the next five years, the space growth of the beneficiary industries (on the order of two) * the increase of market share (on the order of five) * the increase of the proportion of self-made chips / the increase of scale effect, the net interest rate, corresponding to more than 10 times the growth potential of revenue and profit. After the path of SiC devices replicating IGBT modules before chips is opened from 2025 to 2030, the growth logic will continue from 5 years to more than 10 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 396 million yuan, 630 million yuan and 950 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 136 times, 91 times and 60 times of the current PE respectively; Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicles is less than expected; Macroeconomic downturn; SiC R & D projects were not as expected.
