\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021: Q4 accelerated growth month on month, and the performance exceeded expectations!
In the whole year: 480 million (YoY + 80%) returned to the parent and 430 million (YoY + 74%) deducted.
Q4: RMB 180 million (YoY + 90%) to the parent, and RMB 170 million (YoY + 90%) to be deducted.
Sino Thai expected split: revenue meets expectations and Q4 profit margin exceeds expectations
Total revenue: it is estimated that the annual revenue will be about 4.05 billion (YoY + 44%) and Q4 will be about 1.4 billion (YoY + 48%).
China: Q4 expects yoy + 50-60%, about 3.5 billion (YoY + 44%) in the whole year. Among them, ① online: the high growth continues. According to the staff statistics, the sales volume of Jimi Q4 Amoy is yoy + 76%; ② Offline: expected drag. The company adjusted its offline distribution channels + the impact of the epidemic, and the growth rate of Q4 is expected to slow down.
Overseas: Q4 predicts that the pace of Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) shipment in 2020 will affect the base, resulting in a slowdown in overseas growth in the second half of the year. The annual forecast is 550-650 million (YoY + 40% - 60%).
Net interest rate: Q4 is about 13% (YoY is about + 2.8pct, mom is about + 1PCT). The main reasons for the increase are:
① Q4 revenue has increased significantly, and the scale effect dilutes the rate;
2. Part of the marketing expenses are placed in Q3 (such as Yiyang Qianxi endorsement fee confirmed in Q3).
③ part of the income tax deduction shall be recognized at the end of the year;
④ non recurring contribution 1PCT net interest rate, mainly for idle fund financing.
Business tracking: performance continues to outperform the industry
Industry: according to Lotu, the sales volume of intelligent projection industry from January to November of 21 was yoy + 15%, and Jimi outperformed the industry in the whole year.
Chip: chip supply is expected to be tight before and loose after 2022. After the second half of the year, the chip tension will gradually weaken.
Overseas: the company has recently listed laser TV aura / portable projection halo + abroad. At present, the overseas product line has been gradually supplemented. It is expected that the focus of work will shift from product supplement to channel expansion in 2022.
Investment suggestion: buy rating.
The short-term prosperity of the projector track continues to shine, and Jimi, as an advantageous brand, is expected to continue to enjoy a high growth rate; Going to sea is also expected to usher in a large volume under the expansion of channels. By increasing the profit forecast, it is estimated that the profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 480, 670 and 960 million yuan (the previous value is 430, 640 and 900 million yuan), corresponding to 50, 36 and 25 times of PE. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tip: the supply of core parts is in short supply, the industry competition worsens, and the sea is less than expected
