\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Performance forecast: the median growth of net profit attributable to parent company exceeded expectations
According to the company's performance forecast, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) 2021 will achieve: 1) the net profit attributable to the parent company is RMB 820-890 million, with a year-on-year increase of 51% - 64%; 2) Net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 770-840 million, with a year-on-year increase of 50% - 64%. The non recurring profit and loss is 45-55 million yuan, mainly due to the investment income of idle funds and government subsidies.
Among them, Q4 achieved in a single quarter: 1) the net profit attributable to the parent company was 460-530 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% - 63%; 2) Deduct 440-510 million yuan of non parent net profit.
The company's performance is expected to grow faster than expected. We judge the main reasons as follows: 1) channel empowerment: tmall's channel is stable. The company is the only Chinese brand that has been shortlisted in the "tmall beauty and skin care category at present" for four consecutive years in 18-21 years; Tiktok, Kwai Chung, and Watsons, OTC and other new channels are also focused on. 2) single product bright eye: big single product strategy success, trump card product special cream continues to increase, new product freeze-drying mask double eleven binding, Li Jiaqi once hot sell out.
Continue to be optimistic: category boundary expansion, diversified marketing and sales channel expansion.
Products: the core products have a stable foundation, the new products have made efforts to create increment, and the brand expansion promotes growth. The company's ability to hatch and explode money has been verified. The core single product special care cream (double eleven sold out of 4 million bottles) and sunscreen lotion have been growing at a high level. New high moisturizing repair cream and freeze-dried mask (double eleven sold out of 2 million boxes) have been promoted, and have been promoted by double eleven to sell well.
Brand: actively explore new brands around "sensitive +". In recent years, new brand series have been launched, including Winona baby for infant skin care, beautyanswers for skin repair after medical art, etc. Among them, Winona baby has emerged in the double 11 and has been listed as the top of tmall baby skin care category. It is expected to continue to increase in 2002; Beautyanswers and new anti-aging brands are expected to be incubated in 2022.
Tiktok: new channels such as online shaking and voice raising, and laying OTC channels under the line, forming a differentiated layout. Tiktok Kwai, 1) the company's online channel has implemented multi platform layout strategy, and 21 years have actively expanded channels such as jitter and fast hand, and double eleven has been able to tiktok TOP1. With a hotly contested spot, tiktok is expected to increase its GMV share. 2) In terms of offline channels, pharmacies have great potential. If the integration of offline and online can be realized, it is expected to form a differentiated layout with other beauty brand channels.
Profit forecast and valuation
Efficacy skin care products have a high prosperity and are expected to maintain high-speed growth, Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) products, channels and brands work together, and there is a large room for profitability growth in the future. We raised the profit forecast and estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.97 billion yuan, 5.47 billion yuan and 7.27 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 51%, 38% and 33%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 830 million yuan, 1.17 billion yuan and 1.59 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 53%, 41% and 36%; The current market value corresponds to pe83, 59 and 43 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The risk of intensified market competition, repeated epidemic, the risk that the marketing model cannot adapt to market changes, the risk of relatively concentrated sales platforms, etc.
