\u3000\u3000 Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.Ltd(603898) (603898)
The company released the performance forecast, and it is estimated that the revenue will reach 3.275 billion yuan to 3.6 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 50% to 65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 110 million yuan to 220 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60% to 20%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 97 million yuan to 194 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 60% to 20%.
The company focused on the core strategy of "new original state + big home", superimposed and expressed QianChuan in Hubei, and the income increased significantly. Thanks to the further deepening of the consolidation of QianChuan and big home strategy, the extended categories such as wooden doors, cabinets and finished product supporting maintained a high growth. According to the categories, the company's wardrobe / cabinet / wooden doors / finished product supporting / doors and windows achieved revenue of RMB 14.38/1.38/660/0.96/44 million respectively in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of + 22.5% / + 48.1% / + 2272.7% / + 96.4% / + 38.4% respectively; The proportion of large household orders at the retail end has increased steadily, and the customer unit value is expected to further increase.
The provision for impairment of accounts receivable, bills and goodwill affects the performance of the current period. ① Provision for bad debts of notes receivable and accounts receivable: as of December 31, 2021, the company held 394 million yuan of notes receivable of Evergrande group, including 144 million yuan of overdue notes, 250 million yuan of undue notes and 70 million yuan of accounts receivable; Hubei QianChuan holds 375 million yuan of notes receivable and 68 million yuan of accounts receivable of Evergrande group. Based on the assessment of the recoverability of accounts receivable and bills, the company believes that there is an impairment risk and accrues bad debt reserves. ② Provision for impairment of Goodwill: when the company acquired 51% equity of Hubei QianChuan in 20 years, it formed a goodwill of 488 million yuan. Affected by Evergrande's credit risk events and the overall regulation and control of real estate, the company made provision for impairment of Goodwill Based on the principle of prudence. In order to avoid losses, the company has taken the initiative to significantly reduce its cooperation with Evergrande group. At present, a small number of business transactions have been converted to spot settlement; Meanwhile, the company will continue to claim rights and interests from Evergrande group in various ways.
Continue to take retail business as the core channel and steadily expand terminal stores. By the first three quarters of 2021, the company's revenue from direct sales / distribution / bulk channels had reached 55 / 1733 / 584 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.3% / + 38.8% / + 1212.0% respectively. The total proportion of direct sales and distribution channels reached 75.3%. The retail network continued to expand steadily. By the end of 21q3, the company had 2100 distribution stores, with a net increase of 108, and 31 Direct stores, with a net increase of 6.
The brand side continues to strengthen the "original" and Guangzhou Holike Creative Home Co.Ltd(603898) dual IP, reaching young customers through cross-border marketing. The company pays attention to the new generation of consumers. Based on lifestyle research and platform data analysis, the company launched a series of products with pet theme, E-sports theme, live broadcast theme and fitness theme to meet the needs of subdivided groups and reach young customers by introducing cross-border alliance, trendy space, trendy play and other elements. At the same time, since the second half of 2020, the base material of the company's products has been comprehensively upgraded to aldehyde free board, and the sales proportion of the original pure aldehyde bamboo board of patented products has increased steadily, so as to further strengthen the company's original environmental protection IP and maintain the leading position of healthy home.
Profit forecast and Valuation: considering the impact of Evergrande event on the company's short-term performance, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 / 22 will be RMB 180 / 210 million respectively (the original value is RMB 340 / 410 million), respectively - 35% / + 18% year-on-year, and the corresponding PE will be 19.8x/16.8x respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the performance forecast data is only the preliminary calculation results of the company's financial department. There are risks in the accrual of notes receivable and accounts receivable, less than expected delivery of new houses, intensified industry competition, M & A risks, etc
