\u3000\u3000 Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is 1.8-2.4 billion yuan and the net profit not attributable to the parent company is 1.08-1.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 198% - 231% and 183% - 224% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 1.270-1.870 billion yuan, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 1.202-1.722 billion yuan, an increase of 186% - 321% and 951% - 1319% month on month respectively.
Comments:
Lithium prices rose, costs were rigid, and Q4 performance exceeded expectations. The net profit attributable to the parent company from Q1-Q4 in 2021 was -248 million, 334 million, 444 million and 1270-1870 million yuan, with a month on month increase of 66%, 235%, 33% and 186% - 321% respectively; The net profit deducted from non profits was -159 million, 178 million, - 141 million and 1.202-1.722 billion yuan, with a month on month increase of 50%, 212%, /, 951% - 1319% respectively. The company's annual performance, especially the Q4 performance, exceeded expectations. First, the company's lithium resources were 100% self-sufficient, the guarantee cost was relatively rigid, and the performance elasticity of lithium price rise was large. The price of electric carbon rose from 53800 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 to 282400 yuan / ton at the end of the year, and the average price of Q1-Q4 was 74400 yuan / ton, 8900 yuan / ton, 116000 yuan / ton and 206200 yuan / ton respectively. The Q4 lithium price rose sharply by 80%, which made the company's Q4 performance exceed expectations; Second, sqm's performance increased significantly year-on-year, resulting in a significant increase in the company's investment income in the associated company compared with 2020; Third, the income from changes in fair value increased significantly, of which (1) the income from debt restructuring related to the extension of syndicated M & A loans was recognized as 673 million yuan, (2) affected by the fluctuation of sqm stock price and LIBOR interest rate, the income from changes in fair value generated by sqm's class B leading option financing business and the investment income generated by hedging business in 2021 were about 45 million yuan. Resource advantages appear, and the leading King returns. The company's resource support capacity is in the leading position in the industry. Talison's Greenbush spodumene mine is expected to start tailings restoration in the third quarter of 2022 to increase the capacity of 300000 tons of lithium concentrate. The third phase of 600000 tons / year lithium concentrate expansion plan will be completed in advance to 2024; Sqm, a joint-stock company, plans to add 60000 tons of lithium carbonate and 8500 tons of lithium hydroxide in 2022. At the same time, it has passed the 50000 tons of lithium hydroxide project of mtholland and is expected to be put into operation in 2024. The company controls Yajiang spodumene mine and shares Zabuye Salt Lake in China as reserve resources. The company now has an annual capacity of 44800 tons of lithium salt and 24000 tons of lithium hydroxide in quinana, Australia. It is expected to be fully put into operation in March 2022. In the future, with the 24000 tons of lithium hydroxide capacity of quinana phase II and the gradual production of 20000 tons of lithium carbonate project in Anju, Suining, Sichuan, the company's lithium salt supply capacity will be further improved.
In 2022, the supply and demand of lithium resources will be in tight balance, and the price of lithium is expected to remain high. With the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industry, the demand for lithium is growing strongly, and the strategic position of lithium resources is constantly strengthened. According to our calculation of lithium supply and demand, it is estimated that the supply of lithium resources will increase by about 177000 tons in 2022. Assuming that the growth rate of global new energy vehicle production is 50%, the supply and demand of the whole year will maintain a tight balance. It is expected that the lithium price center will remain above the current price in 2022, the performance of lithium companies is expected to increase significantly, and the enterprise value of lithium resources is expected to be revalued.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company to realize net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.176 billion, RMB 10.059 billion and RMB 14.428 billion from 2021 to 2023, with year-on-year growth of 218.7%, 362.2% and 43.4% respectively. The PE corresponding to the latest market value is 58x, 13X and 9x respectively. Considering the continuous prosperity of downstream new energy vehicles and energy storage and the company's continuous expansion ability, maintain the company's "buy" rating.
Risk factors: falling lithium price; The progress of the company's production expansion project is less than expected.
