\u3000\u3000 Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) (688017)
The industry continues to be in short supply + the release of production capacity is accelerated, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to exceed expectations:
The company released the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 185 ~ 205 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 126% ~ 150%, exceeding the unanimous expectation of wind (178 million yuan) and our previous prediction (190 million yuan). The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 143 ~ 163 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 206% ~ 249%. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 43 ~ 63 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 127% ~ 232%.
The company’s performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to the high growth of industry demand and the rapid improvement of its own production capacity. In 2021, China’s industrial Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) output was 366000 sets, a year-on-year increase of + 44.9%, driving the growth of demand for harmonic reducer; At the same time, the release of the company’s production capacity is accelerated. We expect that by the end of 2021, the company’s production capacity has doubled compared with the beginning of the year, and the company’s performance is bright under the scale effect.
According to our calculation, there is still a supply gap of 27.5/12.1/75000 units in the global harmonic reducer Market from 2022 to 2024; At the same time, under the catalysis of the epidemic, the trend of “machine replacement” is expected to accelerate, that is, the demand related to Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) is likely to exceed expectations. Therefore, the harmonic reducer industry will continue to be in short supply in the short term. Under the capacity expansion, the market share of Leader Harmonious Drive Systems Co.Ltd(688017) is expected to increase rapidly and the performance is expected to exceed expectations.
New products + new applications broaden the long-term growth boundary:
Hammernaco’s non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) application shipments accounted for 40-60% of the total shipments in 2020, while the company’s main downstream is still Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , and is gradually expanding non Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) applications. The main directions are:
① Mechatronics: it mainly integrates servo system, harmonic reducer, sensor and other parts into modules to improve the comprehensive performance of products. At present, the company mainly focuses on the downstream of CNC machine tools. We expect that the market scale of harmonic reducer for CNC machine tools in China from 2021 to 2025 will be CAGR = 45%, which will add more increment to the harmonic reducer Market.
② electro-hydraulic servo: electro-hydraulic servo system is an automatic control equipment with liquid as power transmission medium. It has the characteristics of fast response speed, large power mass ratio and large load resistance stiffness. It is the most ideal driving equipment for quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . High load capacity is a necessary condition for the commercialization of quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) . In the future, with the gradual opening of industrialization of quadruped Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , electro-hydraulic servo can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering that the harmonic reducer market continues to be in short supply and the expansion of the company’s production capacity exceeds our expectations, we adjusted the forecast of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 190 / 301 / 419 million yuan in 2021-2023 to 195 (increased by 3%) / 301 (maintained) / 419 million yuan. The current market value corresponds to 90 / 58 / 42 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk tip: the development of downstream industries is less than expected, the industry competition intensifies, and the expansion of new products is less than expected
