\u3000\u3000 Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) (600779)
Event: Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) released the annual performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 4.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.199 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company will be 1.216 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%. The annual performance meets the market expectation. Q4 single quarter revenue was 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 199 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%.
In the 21st year, the sales volume resumed high growth, and the product structure was steadily upgraded. 1) In terms of split volume and price, the sales volume increased by about 40% in 21 years, all of which came from medium and high-grade liquor, and the average price increased by about 10% year-on-year. The annual sales volume increased significantly, mainly because the epidemic in 20 years had a great impact on banquets and other scenes, and the year-on-year base was low. In 21 years, with the effective control of the epidemic in China, the aggregated social consumption gradually recovered, and the sales of large single products also resumed high growth. The average price increased steadily, mainly due to the further increase in the proportion of high-end products. 2) From the perspective of specific products, it is estimated that zhenniang 8 and the well platform have achieved high growth on a low base, the operation time of the collection is short, and the estimated incremental contribution is relatively small. 3) It is estimated that the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 21 years will be 25.89%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.56pct, which is estimated to be mainly driven by structural upgrading. 21q4 revenue growth is relatively stable, and the profit side is under short-term pressure. In a single quarter, 1) it is estimated that the sales volume / average price of 21q4 increased by about 6% / 7% year-on-year respectively. The goods preparation for the Spring Festival has started in the late fourth quarter. East China and other channels reported that the Spring Festival payment collection began in December. The company cooperated with the corresponding preferential activities, and the payment collection progress was accelerated compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the delivery rhythm was controlled to accumulate energy. In the peak season of the Spring Festival, the revenue growth of Q4 was relatively stable. 2) 21Q4 profit has a pressure year after year, and its net profit margin is 16.44%, down 5.22pct from the same period. It is estimated that the strategic investment needs to be advanced. The company released the upgraded edition in the second half of 21, set up high-end Baijiu sales company and recruited group purchase business, and estimated that the Q4 expenditure increased. In addition, the company released the employee stock ownership plan at the end of September. It is estimated that the share based payment expense in 2021 is about 3.5387 million yuan, and the expense amortization also has a certain disturbance on the profit side.
The feedback of mobile sales during the Spring Festival is steady, and the high-end strategy throughout the year is firm. From the recent feedback, the Spring Festival collection and preparation are carried out in an orderly manner. The collection progress in the main markets is 25-30%. The delivery before the festival is basically completed, the inventory level is within one month, and the product rating is relatively stable. In the whole year, eight and well as main contributions to the revenue, it is expected to continue to enjoy the bonus of the expansion of the high-end Baijiu liquor and achieve rapid expansion. The eight of the deep ploughing banquet scene is expected to continue to increase the channel sink and increase the permeability. Besides the banquet, the well site also carries some business banquet needs, group purchase property is expected to be further excavated. Collection has been the focus of 22 years’ development. The company has a firm high-end line. It has established a high-end business department and sales company to operate the collection independently. The channel is relatively flat and the management is more refined. Some cities in East China have successfully attracted investment, and the proportion of collection is expected to further increase in 2022.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: according to the performance forecast, the net profit forecast for 2021 was slightly raised to 1.192 billion (compared with the previous forecast + 2.77%), maintaining the net profit forecast of 1.495/1.831 billion for 22-23 years, corresponding to EPS of 2.44/3.06/3.75 yuan, and the corresponding P / E of the current stock price was 43 / 34 / 28 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the competition of China’s second high-end Baijiu is intensified, and the cost delivery output is not as good as expected.
