Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466) event
On the evening of January 26, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.8-2.4 billion yuan, deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 1.08-1.6 billion yuan, and realize EPS of 1.22-1.62 yuan. The performance turned losses into profits, with a loss of 1.834 billion yuan in the same period in 2020.
Commentary
Q4 performance greatly exceeded expectations. The net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 21 was 1.27 billion yuan - 1.87 billion yuan, an increase of 186% - 321% month on month. Q1-q3 deducts non parent net profit of - 122 million yuan, mainly due to debt restructuring and sqm collar option loss. Q4 deducts non parent net profit of 1.922 billion yuan - 2.522 billion yuan, which proves that the company has low cost and high performance flexibility. After the completion of the Igo transaction, the company plans to issue H shares for listing and financing, and the subsequent debt, options and other factors will weaken the impact on the company's performance.
Talison incremental space + reserve resource guarantee. Talison currently has a production capacity of 1.34 million tons / year. It is expected that the utilization rate of talison's production capacity will be improved in 22 years to achieve full sales and full production. At the same time, the tailings pond project will be put into operation in Q2 of 22 years, which is expected to increase the production capacity of 300000 tons / year. The trial operation time of talison phase III production expansion plan is advanced to 24 years, and the subsequent production capacity will be expanded to 1.94 million tons / year, with large growth space. Talison lithium concentrate has the lowest production and operation cost in the world and great performance flexibility. In addition, the company's 20% stake in Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet and the wholly-owned Caola lithium mine in Yajiang, Sichuan have not been mined yet, so it has a strong ability to ensure the supply of resources.
Quinana phase I project in Australia has been put into trial operation and the capacity is climbing. At present, the 24000 ton lithium hydroxide project of quesna phase I in Australia has been basically put into operation and put into trial operation. It is in the state of capacity climbing. After being put into operation, the products will be mainly sold to existing order customers such as ski and northvolt. The main project of quesna phase II project has been basically completed and the construction is suspended. At present, the company has a total lithium salt production capacity of 44800 tons. It is expected that the total planned capacity of lithium salt equity will reach 139000 tons by the end of 23.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
According to the 21-year performance forecast, considering the current tight supply and demand of lithium, the average price in 22-23 years is expected to maintain 300000 / ton, an increase of more than 50% compared with the previous forecast. Therefore, the high growth trend of performance in 22-23 years is strong, and the subsequent impact of debt, options and other factors on the company's performance is gradually weakened. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years is increased by 311%, 885% and 756% to 2.131 billion yuan RMB 8.507 billion and RMB 9.580 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 1.44, RMB 5.76 and RMB 6.49 respectively, corresponding to PE of 74 times, 19 times and 17 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium salt price trend in the later stage increases; The growth rate of lithium salt demand was lower than expected.
