\u3000\u3000 Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) (300725)
Event: on January 26, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize an operating revenue of 1.18-1.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.0% - 20.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 480-500 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 160.0% - 170.0%; The non net profit deducted was 230-240 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.0% - 40.0%.
The performance is growing steadily, and we expect to perform well after excluding the impact of exchange rate. In 2021, the company expects to achieve a median revenue of about 1.2 billion yuan (+ 17.5%), a median net profit attributable to the parent company of about 490 million yuan (+ 165.0%), and a median net profit of about 230 million yuan (+ 35.0%). We expect that the main reasons are: ① the acquisition of 16.5% equity of Zhejiang Huishi will bring higher income from changes in fair value; ② Under the disturbance of the epidemic, the release progress of new production capacity was slightly affected, but under the condition of no significant growth of production capacity, the income through production efficiency improvement still maintained double-digit growth; ③ The company continued to control costs through process innovation and route optimization, and the gross profit margin increased steadily. Quarter by quarter, the median revenue of 2021q4 is about 300 million yuan (+ 0.5%), the median attributable to the parent is about 45.77 million yuan (+ 9.3%), and the median net profit deducted is about 33.5 million yuan (- 14.0%). We expect that it is mainly because the company continues to increase the construction of CMC service platform and increase investment in personnel expansion, fixed assets investment and R & D expenses. In addition, due to the fact that the average exchange rate of US dollar against RMB in 2021 decreased by 6.9% compared with that in 2020, which disturbed the company's revenue and profits, we expect the real performance to be better after excluding the impact of exchange rate.
"Medicine stone R & D" + "medicine stone manufacturing" two wheel drive. With the gradual release of new production capacity, it is optimistic that the vertical extension of the industrial chain will bring long-term growth. 1) "Medicine stone R & D": the company has built a virtual library, fragment molecular library and del Library Based on molecular blocks, actively explore new drug R & D business, and obtain income by transferring new drug projects at a specific stage, which may lead to the improvement of medium and long-term performance flexibility; 2) "Medicine stone manufacturing": with the continuous improvement of key processes and technologies such as micro packed bed catalysis, continuous flow chemistry and enzyme catalysis, and the continuous improvement of customer viscosity, the company is expected to gradually open up the business model of upstream drainage of molecular blocks and downstream diversion of APIs and preparations cdmo. We believe that with the continuous improvement of API system and the continuous launch of new production capacity such as Zhejiang Huishi, Shandong Yaoshi and Nanjing Tianyi, the company's cdmo business is expected to usher in a rapid growth period.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: according to the company's performance forecast, we adjust the profit forecast. We predict that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.211, 1.689 and 2.572 billion yuan (1.383, 1.854 and 2.759 billion yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 18.45%, 39.46% and 52.30% (35.32%, 34.05% and 48.79% before adjustment), The net profit attributable to the parent company was 486 million yuan, 396 million yuan and 532 million yuan (535 million yuan, 415 million yuan and 554 million yuan before adjustment), with a year-on-year increase of 163.57%, - 18.35% and 34.13% (190.31%, - 22.32% and 33.30% before adjustment). As a leading enterprise in the field of molecular blocks, the company relies on molecular blocks to vertically develop the new drug equity transfer and cdmo business, bring long-term growth and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning events: the public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update, and the loss of core technicians; Risks of raw material supply and price rise, environmental protection and safety production risks;
