\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696)
Performance review
On January 26th, Jimi released the announcement of pre increase of performance in 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 480 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 80.1%, and a net profit of 430 million yuan after deduction, a year-on-year increase of + 73.6%. Corresponding to 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 89.0%, and the net profit after deduction of non-profit is 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 89.5%.
Business analysis
On the revenue side, smart micro investment is booming. Jimi has made excellent achievements during the double 11 and double 12. The total sales of the double 11 network exceeded 800 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 90%. The total sales of the double 12 network exceeded 100 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of more than 160%. It is expected to have a great pull on the revenue side in the fourth quarter. It is estimated that the annual net interest rate attributable to the parent company is close to 12% and the corresponding revenue growth rate is about 45%, so the net interest rate in the fourth quarter is close to 13% and the corresponding revenue growth rate is about 50%.
On the profit side, the large volume of high-end new products has driven the gross profit margin to rise steadily. During the double 11, the single product sales of high-end models h3s and rspro2 exceeded 250 million yuan and 80 million yuan respectively, accounting for 31% and 10% of the sales volume. After superposition, the self-research rate of optical machinery at the end of 20 was only 70%, which has reached 90% at present. Therefore, it is expected that the gross profit margin of 21q4 will increase significantly. In terms of cost rate, the three quarter official propaganda Yiyang Qianxi spokesman and a number of supporting publicity, such as airport advertising, satellite TV, promotional videos, micro-blog open screen, etc., successfully double eleven preheating, and most of the cost was confirmed in the three quarter. Therefore, the sales cost ratio is obviously decreased, and stabilized year by year.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
Intelligent projection is in line with the changing characteristics of the times such as the third consumer society paying more attention to individuals and spiritual needs. It is upgraded from information acquisition to information enjoyment, and has great potential for penetration and improvement. It is suggested to focus on the high-quality leader of high growth track for a long time. As the expense ratio in the fourth quarter is expected to be lower than expected and the net interest rate in the fourth quarter is expected to be increased, we raised the profit forecast (the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years is increased by 9%), and we expect the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be RMB 4.089 billion, RMB 5.690 billion and RMB 7.830 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 44.6%, 39.2% and 37.6% respectively. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 480 million, RMB 680 million and RMB 940 million respectively, The year-on-year growth was 80.1%, 40.1% and 38.4% respectively, and the EPS was 9.7, 13.6 and 18.8 yuan / share respectively. The current share price corresponds to 49.5x, 35.3x and 25.5xpe from 2021 to 2023 respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The penetration rate of the projector is lower than the expected risk, the risk of relying on outsourcing of core parts, the risk of intensified industry competition and the risk of price fluctuation of raw materials.
