\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
Event overview
The company issued a performance pre increase announcement. It is estimated that in 2021, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.04-4.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.35% - 144.65% (median 4.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 133%), corresponding to Q4, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 382-808 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 37.3% to 32.6% (median 595 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%).
The performance was in line with expectations. The price and cost of 21q4 were under double pressure, and the profit decreased significantly month on month compared with Q3. The company's performance basically meets our expectations. In Q4, due to the "low peak season" in the industrial chain caused by the capital pressure of some leading real estate enterprises, the price of float glass in 2021q4 of the company decreased more month on month. At the same time, due to the rapid rise of soda ash cost, the gross profit of Q4 boxes decreased by more than 30 yuan / box month on month, making the profit of Q4 company decreased significantly month on month compared with Q3 (the net profit of 1.313 billion yuan and 1.465 billion yuan in Q2 and Q3 in a single quarter respectively).
In 2022, the supply and demand pattern of float glass is still good, but the price is under pressure year-on-year. We judge that under the background of marginal relaxation of real estate policy and guaranteed delivery, the overall demand for real estate delivery and completion will maintain a positive growth rate in 2022, so as to keep the demand for architectural float glass stable; On the supply side, due to the large number of elderly kilns with potential cold repair conditions (according to Zhuo Chuang information, it is estimated that more than 90 kilns have been in service for more than 8 years, accounting for about 35% of the national production capacity), we judge that the supply side is expected to be in a shrinking state in 2022, so as to maintain a good supply and demand pattern of float glass industry. However, according to Zhuo Chuang data, at present, the average price of float glass in China is 2105 yuan / ton, 55-60 yuan / ton lower than that in the same period last year, and the inventory of key enterprises is still higher than that in the same period last year. Therefore, there is still some pressure on the price year-on-year in 2022, especially in the second and third quarters of this year.
Photovoltaic glass sector is expected to contribute elasticity in 2023. We expect that the five photovoltaic calendered glass production lines with daily melting capacity of 1200 tons announced by the company will be put into operation successively in 2022 (one of them is expected to be in the first half of the year and the rest at the end of the year), which will greatly expand the total photovoltaic glass production capacity of the company. After completion, it is expected that the scale of photovoltaic glass will enter the top three ranks. In the context of high demand for photovoltaic glass, we expect that the cost will become the winner of the photovoltaic glass industry. The company's 1200 ton daily melting mass production line has scale advantages in the industry. At the same time, the company's unique float preparation technology of photovoltaic glass also greatly reduces the company's production cost, In addition, the company's float glass business scale advantage is also conducive to the company to further reduce procurement costs. Therefore, we believe that the company is expected to become a new star in the photovoltaic industry, and the photovoltaic glass business will also provide new growth momentum for the company in the post real estate era. It is expected that the photovoltaic sector will significantly increase in volume and contribute to performance flexibility in 2023.
Investment advice
Considering the large decline in glass price since 2021q3, the price assumption is reduced. The revenue forecast from 2021 to 2023 was lowered to 15.14/186.8/24.37 billion yuan (Original: 159.9/202.8/24.93 billion yuan), the net profit attributable to the parent company was predicted to 4.25/46.34/55.25 billion yuan (Original: 45.97/52.28/6.010 billion yuan), and EPS was lowered to 1.58/1.73/2.06 yuan (Original: 1.71/1.95/2.24 yuan), corresponding to the closing price of 17.2 yuan on January 26, 10.87/9.97/8.36xpe. Considering the acceleration of photovoltaic, electronics, medical glass and other businesses, the valuation was raised to 12xpe in 2022, and the target price was adjusted to 20.76 yuan (Original: 19.50 yuan), maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The demand is lower than expected, the cost is higher than expected, and there are systemic risks.
