\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (300124)
In 2021, the revenue was + 40-60% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 55-75% year-on-year. The deduction of non performance basically met our expectations. The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and achieved a revenue of 16.12 ~ 18.42 billion yuan (median value of 17.27 billion yuan) in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 40% ~ 60%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.26 ~ 3.68 billion yuan (median value: 3.47 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 55% – 75%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 2.68 ~ 3.06 billion yuan (median value: 2.87 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of + 40% ~ 60%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 2.77-5.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 19% ~ + 49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 760 ~ 1.18 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27 ~ 97%; The net profit deducted from non parent company is 260-640 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 46% ~ + 33%. We expect the actual performance to be in the upper middle of the above range. The higher absolute value of non recurring profit and loss in 2021q4 is due to the rapid growth of the fair value of overseas funds and the fair value of derivative financial instruments hedging the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate (the impact of non recurring profit and loss on net profit in 2021 was 577 million yuan and 187 million yuan in the same period in 2020).
General automation business: the industry returned to moderate growth. Huichuan seized the structural opportunity of advanced manufacturing sector, continuously increased its sales share through the “top sinking” method, and the import substitution continued to accelerate. The year-on-year growth rate of industrial control business revenue in 2021 exceeded 60%, significantly stronger than that of the industry. At the same time, double carbon, industrial Internet and other product tracks are arranged to lay a good foundation for the next round of high growth. The 2021q4 OEM industry has warmed up month on month and is expected to grow by 20-30% year-on-year in 2021. We expect the OEM to return to a moderate growth of 10-20% in 2022. The year-on-year growth rate of Huichuan industrial control sector in 2021 is expected to reach 60% + performance far exceeds that of the industry, and continues to reflect strong operation α。 The downstream structure of the company is optimized and high β Most of them are advanced manufacturing, and the superimposed product categories continue to expand. We expect that the CAGR of Huichuan industrial control business is expected to be close to 30% from 2022 to 2023.
In 2021, new power customers continued to increase in volume + new customer projects continued to increase in fixed points + ASP. The company’s new energy vehicle business significantly reduced losses this year and is expected to make a profit in 2022. The new energy vehicle business revenue in 2021q3 is 870 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 189%. 2021q4 is expected to continue the high growth month on month and continue to verify the high growth. Among them, new forces such as ideal one and Xiaopeng P7 continue to increase in volume. According to the data of the passenger Association, the company’s sales volume reached 90500 / 60600 respectively in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 177% / + 295%. The revenue of Xinneng vehicle business is expected to reach 2.5-3 billion yuan in 2021, the sales share and single vehicle value will continue to increase in the future, the profit side will significantly reduce losses this year, and it is expected to start making profits in 2022.
The elevator business maintained steady growth. The revenue of 2021q3 elevator business (Headquarters + BST) was 1.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%. The shortage of chips / bulk price increases put pressure on the gross profit margin of elevator parts, but it is expected to be relieved in 2022. On the whole, we expect the elevator business revenue to increase by 15-20% in 2021. From 2022 to 2023, with the help of large supporting comprehensive solutions + elevator going to sea + post service market, we are expected to maintain a stable CAGR of 10%.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion: as the overall performance of the company’s forecast exceeds the market expectation, we slightly increase the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to 3.45 billion yuan (+ 240 million yuan) / 4.39 billion yuan (+ 100 million yuan) / 5.69 billion yuan (+ 60 million yuan) (considering the amortization of equity incentive expenses), 64% / + 27% / + 30% year-on-year, corresponding to 50 times, 39 times and 30 times of the current price PE respectively. Considering the strong operation of the company in the industrial control industry α、 As well as the leading position of domestic investment in motor electric control, the target price is given as 83.5 yuan, corresponding to 50 times PE in 2022, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, downstream demand does not meet expectations, new energy vehicle customer expansion is less than expected, competition intensifies, etc.
