\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Matters:
The company announced the pre increase announcement of performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the whole year of 21 will be RMB 820-890 million, with a year-on-year increase of 50.87% - 63.75%.
Ping An View:
The company's net profit continued to grow, in line with expectations: the company expects the annual net profit attributable to the parent company to be RMB 820-890 million, with a year-on-year increase of 50.87% - 63.75%; The net profit deducted from non profit is 770 million yuan to 840 million yuan, which is expected to increase by 50.20% - 63.85% year-on-year. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter is expected to be 465-535 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6% - 62.9%.
The online advantages of the main brand Winona continue to expand: during tmall's double 11, Winona's turnover exceeded one billion. In the beauty ranking released by tmall, Winona has become the only domestic brand with top 10 sales. In the case of the double 11 explosion, Winona still achieved a high growth rate in December. According to the Amoy data, Winona's Amoy sales reached 280 million yuan in December, an increase of 367.5% compared with the same period in 20 years.
The second growth curve is expected to be achieved through multiple measures: 1) the company opened its offline layout and opened its first offline store in Hangzhou Yintai in December 21; 2) the main brand is constantly being promoted. Following the special cream, sun protection, freeze-dried mask and spot cream, it is expected to become a new explosive product. 3) The new brand Winona baby has been officially launched in 21 years. It was listed in the top 10 of tmall baby skin care during the double 11, and is expected to continue in large quantities in 22 years; 4) The company plans to launch a lady level anti-aging brand in 22 years, focusing on the sales of large chain medical and American institutions in the initial stage.
Profit forecast and Valuation: Based on the company's performance forecast and sales in the fourth quarter, we fine tuned the company's revenue forecast from 2021 to 2023 to 3.967 billion, 5.506 billion and 7.098 billion, and fine tuned the net profit attributable to the parent company to 866 million, 1.149 billion and 1.523 billion yuan (the original forecast was 823 million, 1.097 billion and 1.354 billion yuan). The PE corresponding to the current stock price was 79.5 times, 59.9 times and 45.2 times respectively. At present, as the leader of sensitive skin care products, the company has obvious advantages and maintains the "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1) the risk of intensified competition in the skin care industry. 2) The risk that the promotion of new products is not as good as expected. 3) The company relies heavily on super anchor in marketing, and there are certain policy risks in the e-commerce live broadcasting industry. 4) There is a risk of tightening the policy in the cosmetics industry.
