\u3000\u3000 Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) (300573)
Event: on January 26, 2022, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 187 million yuan - 212 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.46% - 140.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 177 million yuan - 202 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.92% - 136.89%.
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 112% - 140% year-on-year, and the performance growth basically met the expectations: in 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 187-212 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 112.46% - 140.49%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 177 million yuan - 202 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 107.92% - 136.89%, and the performance growth was basically in line with expectations.
The phase III clinical progress of low concentration atropine is leading, and the products are expected to be listed first: according to the data of the Ministry of education, the number of myopia among primary and secondary school students in China reached 89.7743 million in 2018. As the only prescription drug to delay myopia, low concentration atropine has a large sales space in China. The phase III clinical progress of the company's low concentration atropine eye drops is smooth, the research and development progress is the world's leading, and it is expected to be listed preferentially in China.
Cyclosporine eye drops have successfully entered the medical insurance catalogue, and the subsequent sales volume is worth looking forward to:
Cyclosporine eye drops are BCS class II drugs. Improving solubility and bioavailability is the core technical barrier for its R & D and preparation. Only Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300573) of this variety has been approved for listing in China. A few companies such as Hengrui and kangzhe (acting as sun Pharma) are still in the research and development stage, and the competition pattern of medium and long-term cyclosporine eye drops is good. According to the company's announcement, cyclosporine eye drops have been included in the medical insurance catalogue, and the medical insurance catalogue will be officially implemented from January 1, 2022. After cyclosporine enters the medical insurance in 2022, the sales volume is worth looking forward to.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company to realize net profits of 207 million yuan, 324 million yuan and 429 million yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 135.0%, 56.7% and 32.3% respectively; Give an investment rating of buy - A.
Risk warning: the R & D Progress of heavy varieties is less than expected; The marketing of cyclosporine eye drops did not meet expectations; Risk of disclosure of core technology; The calculation assumption does not meet the expected risk, etc.
