\u3000\u3000 Jenkem Technology Co.Ltd(688356) (688356)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize an operating revenue of 350-353 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 87.5% - 89.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 174-177 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 103.1% - 106.6%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 157-160 million, with a year-on-year increase of 89.5% - 93.2%.
Comments:
The annual revenue is in line with the expectation, and the centralized recognition of Q4 R & D and other expenses has a short-term impact on the net profit. From the perspective of the whole year, the company's performance increased significantly year-on-year, and the revenue, net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent increased by 88.4%, 104.9% and 91.4% respectively (calculated according to the average of the forecast value). The revenue growth was mainly due to the combined impact of the increase in orders brought about by the large volume of several long-acting biological agents for Chinese customers, the continuous and stable increase in orders from overseas old customers, the increase in orders brought about by the promotion of R & D Progress of downstream pharmaceutical R & D customers, and the orders of new products brought about by the development of new customers. Quarterly (calculated according to the average of the forecast value), Q1-Q4 revenue is 69.9/85.8/106.0/89.6 million yuan (+ 159% / + 123% / + 76% / + 48%), Q1-Q4 net profit attributable to parent company is 36.0/44.6/61.7/33.1 million yuan (+ 230% / + 165% / + 118% / + 12%), and Q1-Q4 net profit deducted from non attributable to parent company is 35.1/42.5/52.7/28.3 million yuan (+ 243% / + 180% / + 87% / - 3%). Among them, Q4 net profit decreased significantly month on month, mainly due to the recognition of R & D expenses, equity incentive, bonus accrual and other expenses. At the same time, Q4 investment income and non recurring profit and loss decreased significantly compared with the first three quarters, and the product sales structure changed slightly, which also had a certain impact on the net profit in the fourth quarter. The company's equity incentive and R & D expenses are conducive to the company's long-term development, and the company's product sales are expected to maintain a high profit level.
The expansion of PEG application scenario will bring new customers and new orders, and the promotion of old customer pipeline is expected to bring large orders to the company. In addition to the traditional application scenarios of small molecule and protein transformation in the pharmaceutical field, with the development of biomedicine, the application of PEG has gradually expanded to new directions of drug research and development such as nucleic acid drugs, ADC, PDC, protac and lytac. The company is expected to help drug research and development and production in relevant fields and obtain more new customers and orders with its deep accumulation in the field of PEG materials. At present, the company has three drug customers in phase III clinical, five in phase II clinical, and more than ten in phase I clinical or about to enter clinical. With the promotion of customer pipeline and the listing of products, the company is expected to obtain more large orders.
R & D investment continued to increase, and the self-research pipeline was promoted in an orderly manner. In the first three quarters of 2021, the R & D investment reached 36 million yuan (+ 72%), and it is expected that the R & D investment will further increase with the promotion of self-developed pipeline. The company's product PEGylated irinotecan completed the enrollment of the first subject in clinical phase II on November 16, and it is expected to complete all enrollment in 2022; Jk-1214r, a class 1 new drug for local analgesia, and jk-2122h, a medical beauty product, entered clinical phase I in 2022.
Profit forecast: Based on the company's performance forecast, we revised the previous performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company's revenue will be 352 / 483 / 613 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 88.3% / 37.3% / 26.9% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 189 / 258 / 313 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 103.7% / 47.8% / 21.4% respectively. The current closing price corresponding to PE is 77 / 52 / 43 times respectively. The company is a leading medical peg enterprise with global competitiveness. With the release of new production capacity in Panjin in the second half of this year, the production capacity problem can be effectively solved. In the future, the application of new scenarios, the large volume of orders from old customers and the promotion of self-developed products are expected to bring new growth to the company and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: market promotion risk, core technology iteration risk, risk that polyethylene glycol derivative synthesis technology and products cannot meet customer needs, loss of customer orders, and risk of R & D failure.
