\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) (688696)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 484 million yuan, an increase of 215 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 80.07%; It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits will be 430 million yuan, an increase of 182 million yuan or 73.62% year-on-year compared with the same period of last year.
Comments:
The operating performance exceeded market expectations, and the volume and price rose together, driving the rapid growth of performance. From the perspective of single quarter, the company’s Q4 single quarter net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 184 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 89.04%; In a single quarter, it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is 167 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 89.52%. On the whole, the company’s annual operating performance exceeded market expectations. We believe that the reasons for the high performance are: first, the market performance of Jimi products is good, and the continuous improvement of sales volume drives the growth of revenue; Second, in 2021, the company launched new h3s and horizonpro products with high price segment, which performed well, raising the average price of the company’s products. The average price increase brought by the change of product structure has become another driving force for the company’s performance growth.
The proportion of self-developed optical machines has increased, which is expected to hedge the impact of chip price rise. Since 2020q2, the global supply of DMD chips has decreased, and the sharp rise in chip prices has put pressure on the cost side of the company. In order to hedge the impact of the price rise of raw materials, the company has increased the proportion of self-developed light machines. We expect that the proportion of self-developed light machines by the end of 2021 will increase significantly compared with that by the end of 2020. The increase of the proportion of self-developed light machines has alleviated the cost pressure to a certain extent and led to the increase of the company’s gross profit margin.
China’s market share continues to increase, and the overseas market is gradually developing. According to the company’s semi annual report and IDC data, the company continued to maintain the first shipment volume in China’s projection equipment market from 2018 to 2020, and the market share increased from 13.2% in 2018 to 18.1% in 2020. We expect that the share in 2021 is expected to exceed 20%. At the same time, the company has gradually made efforts in the overseas market. The shipment volume of intelligent projection lamp popinaladdinq3 in Japan in a single quarter has reached more than 30 million units, and Jimi has become the head brand in Japan’s intelligent projection market. In August 2021, the company signed the “Yiyang Qianxi” as the global spokesperson, which will further enhance the company’s product recognition in the global market and boost the growth of overseas sales of polar meters brand.
Investment suggestion: consumer projection industry leader, overseas business development is expected to bring new increment to the company. With excellent R & D technology and outstanding product strength, the company has a solid leading position in China’s intelligent projection industry. At present, the blue ocean space of the overseas intelligent micro investment market needs to be developed. Considering the gradual improvement of the company’s overseas channel construction, we raised the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 484 / 716 / 1.02 billion respectively (the original forecast value was RMB 455 / 673 / 958 million respectively), corresponding to the current market value PE of 50 / 33 / 23 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the channel reform is not as expected, the epidemic situation in China is repeated, and the price of raw materials is rising.
