\u3000\u3000 Crown Advanced Material Co.Ltd(688560) (688560)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a fixed growth plan, raising 2 billion yuan and issuing no more than 49226320 shares to expand the production capacity of 300 million flat aluminum-plastic film and 100 million flat fluorine-free backplane.
The production capacity of aluminum-plastic film has increased by more than 10 times, and the purchased plant has accelerated the progress of production. Due to the growth of downstream demand, domestic aluminum-plastic film has obtained the opportunity of import substitution. As the leader of domestic aluminum-plastic film, the company's products have been recognized by the market. At present, the company's batch sales customers of aluminum-plastic film include Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Zhejiang Narada Power Source Co.Ltd(300068) , etc. At the same time, the company actively expands potential high-quality customers. The company now delivers Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) in small quantities, and has entered the last round of testing phase of Byd Company Limited(002594) and the second round of testing phase of ATL. The fund-raising investment project will greatly expand the company's aluminum-plastic film production capacity and seize the market high point under the background of domestic substitution. The company's new production capacity construction will be invested first with self raised funds. At present, land and plants have been purchased, and the subsequent production progress will be accelerated. Referring to the current industry situation, we predict that the 300 million flat aluminum-plastic film production capacity will have a revenue of 6 billion yuan and a profit of 900 million yuan.
Fluorine free backplane has obvious advantages, supply exceeds demand, and the output of backplane will double. The Bo backplane expanded by the company this time is the company's advantageous product. It has the characteristics of low cost, fluorine-free and environmental protection. It has successfully passed the harsh environmental reliability test of TUV and other third-party certification institutions. It has high cost performance and safety reliability. It is exported to Singapore, South Korea, India and other overseas countries. Its overseas customers mainly include rec, LG, vinasolar and other large foreign component enterprises. At present, the company's Bo backplane has been batch shipped to China Jingao, Tongwei and Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) and other large component manufacturers, and has passed the product test and certification stage of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and entered the business negotiation link. The company's existing backplane production capacity is 114 million square meters, which has been in full production. In the future, the new production capacity is expected to be digested smoothly and the output will be doubled. The new production capacity has also completed the purchase of land and plants. The production expansion speed is fast, and it is expected to be put into operation successively this year.
The company takes the lead in core technology and increases the development of two emerging industrial businesses, with huge development space in the future. The company is one of the earliest enterprises involved in the field of photovoltaic backplane and power cell aluminum-plastic film in China, and has relevant patented film making technology. In addition, relying on its accumulation in the photovoltaic field, the company has developed another photovoltaic Poe film business. The IPO raised 120 million square meters, and the production capacity will gradually reach the production capacity, which will become another growth point of the company's performance. In addition, the company also has a number of promising reserve new technologies, including heterojunction grid membrane, which is expected to form a multi-point flowering situation in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's backplane performance will continue to maintain stable growth. At the same time, the aluminum-plastic film business will become a new growth pole of the company's revenue, accelerate production expansion, and have huge growth space in the future. We raised the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 to RMB 255 / 542 million, and the compound growth rate of the company in the next three years will be 72.51%. We gave a valuation of 30 times in 2022, corresponding to the target price of RMB 46.8, and raised it to the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the single-sided component market is shrinking; Lithium battery technology iteration; Fixed increase and new increase can be less than the expected risk
