\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Key investment points
The company predicts that the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will exceed 50%, and the growth rate of performance will exceed expectations: on January 26, 2022, the company disclosed the performance forecast of annual report in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will reach 820 ~ 890 million yuan (+ 50.87% ~ 63.75%), deducting 770 ~ 840 million yuan of non net profit (+ 50.20% ~ 63.85%). It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be 460 ~ 530 million yuan (+ 42% ~ 63%), and the net profit deducted from non parent company is expected to be 430 ~ 500 million yuan. In a single quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.8/1.9/0.9/4.6 ~ 530 million yuan in 2021q1 ~ Q4, an increase of 45.8% / 75.1% / 64.3% / 42% ~ 63% respectively. Benefiting from the bright performance of Q4 self operated e-commerce and continued good cost control, the company’s performance growth in 2021 exceeded our previous expectations.
Winona 2021Q4 tiktok is a bright and bright company. This year, Tmall will continue to exert its efforts to build Tmall and jitter. Meanwhile, it will continue to develop channels such as OTC and tiktok under the line. The growth of 2021Q4 direct line channel is increasing rapidly. The “double 11” ranks the sixth in Tmall cosmetics and skin care, and the first is the sound and beauty makeup. This year, the company will continue to adhere to the advantages of online direct sales channels, and will also explore offline OTC, direct sales stores and other channels. (1) online direct battalion: mainly continue to exert tiktok channels in Tmall. In terms of the structure of cooperative anchors, we will increase cooperation with middle waist anchors and establish a diversified KOL cooperation matrix. In addition, according to the third party tracking data, the company’s tiktok GMV could last up to 4000-5000w last year, and the main task is self broadcasting, and the scale of the year is expected to continue to improve. (2) OTC: we will cooperate with the top 100 chains to develop OTC channels in developed regions such as Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong; (3) Offline direct marketing: 5-10 image stores will be opened in the core business district of the core first and second tier cities during the year. In terms of products, the company will continue to improve the product matrix along with the idea of “sensitive muscle +”. The products of special cream, sunscreen, freeze-dried mask, Shu Min essence and other products sell better.
Winona baby will divide its products by age, and the new anti-aging brand is expected to be listed in the first half of this year: (1) Winona baby: it will continue to supplement its product types this year, and divide its product lines by 0-3 years old, 3-6 years old and 6-12 years old. It is expected that a number of new products will be launched in the second half of this year, and the core products are highly competitive due to their clinical endorsement. (2) New anti-aging brand: a high-end new brand focusing on anti-aging efficacy is expected to be launched in the first half of this year. The product is priced at more than 1000 yuan and will be first promoted in medical and American institutions.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the company is a leader in skin care at the dermatological level, with a solid professional brand image, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) all channels are expanded smoothly, and the new regulations are expected to continue to play their role. Considering that the performance of the company in 2021q4 exceeded expectations and the incubation of new brands was smooth, we adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 815 / 1142 / 1536 million to RMB 8500 / 1181 / 1620 million from 2021 to 2023, with a simultaneous increase of 56.5% / 38.8% / 37.2%. The current market value corresponds to 81, 58 and 42 times of PE respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the epidemic affects consumption, industry competition intensifies, and the promotion of new products is less than expected
