\u3000\u3000 Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957)
Event: the company announced the performance forecast for the 21st year. In the 21st year, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 820-890 million, an increase of 50.9% – 63.8% at the same time, and deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 770-840 million, an increase of 50.2% – 63.9% at the same time; In the single quarter of 21q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 465-535 million yuan, an increase of 41.6% – 62.9% at the same time. The company’s annual performance exceeded expectations, mainly due to the good performance of double 11 and other peak promotion seasons in the fourth quarter.
Comments:
The promotion peak season such as the double 11 has driven the high growth of online sales, and the offline channels such as Watson are expected to perform well. We expect that the company Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) will make concerted efforts to promote the high growth of revenue. It is expected that the growth rate of revenue in 21 years will be about 50%. From the perspective of sub channels: 1) Amoy has performed prominently in the double 11 and other promotion peak seasons throughout the year. According to the Amoy data, the growth rate of Winona brand 21q4 Amoy Gmv exceeds 80%, driving the high growth of Amoy channels; 2) Kwai tiktok, Jingdong tiktok and other channels have been growing rapidly. Since 21Q3, the company’s self seeding capability has been constantly strengthened, and the channel has been continuously making efforts to become a new online perspective. 3) The laying of Watson’s offline stores has been completed. Through the rational layout of products, the output of single stores has been continuously improved since 21q3, and the traditional channels such as OTC have expanded steadily. With the superposition of the low base under the influence of the epidemic for 20 years, the growth of offline channels is expected to be bright.
The main brand continues to incubate new products, the sub brand starts to work, and the new brand is ready to go. On the main brand, the company continued to create new best selling products. In the first half of 21 years, the sunscreen product became the largest single product after special cream. During the double eleven period, the new freeze-dried mask was sold to the end of stock, and the repair series continued to polish. In terms of sub brands, Winona baby has started to make efforts online and set up tmall flagship store independently. In the future, its products will be further refined according to age. With a good product foundation and solid channel synergy, Winona baby will be committed to building the first brand of mother infant track in the future; In terms of new brands, high-end anti-aging brand products are being polished, and some product series are in the final stage. It is expected that they will be cultivated in medical and American institutions in the early stage, and new brands are ready to be launched, which will become a long-term focus.
With both high growth and deep moat, the future can be expected. The company has accumulated hundreds of academic papers in the field of Dermatology, created and launched products through medical research, won the recognition of top dermatologists in China, and continued to deepen the moat; At the same time, the company is good at grasping the consumer’s change, marketing flexibility, active layout of tiktok, Tencent private domain and other emerging channels, to consolidate online advantages. Dermatology skin care products has become one of the most prosperous sub categories in the cosmetics field. The company will consolidate the advantages of the existing product series, extend it with Shumin plus, create new product series such as whitening, anti-aging and sun resistance, and steadily increase the share of subdivided fields; At the same time, it will actively layout new brands, such as beauty answers, a high-end anti-aging brand, and create a multi brand matrix focusing on skin health, which can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the future development of the company. Winona brand continues to increase the share of subdivided fields. It is expected to lay out new brands and open the growth ceiling in the future. The company has made concerted efforts in the past 21 years. The bright performance in the double 11 promotion season has driven the performance to exceed expectations. We have raised the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.95 billion yuan, 5.65 billion yuan and 7.64 billion yuan respectively, with a simultaneous increase of 49.8%, 43.1% and 35.2% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company will be 850 million yuan (original 800 million yuan), 1.19 billion yuan (original 1.15 billion yuan) and 1.59 billion yuan (1.53 billion yuan) respectively, The same increase was 56.0%, 39.8% and 34.2% respectively. EPS was 2.00 yuan (original 1.88 yuan), 2.80 yuan (original 2.72 yuan) and 3.76 yuan (original 3.61 yuan) respectively. According to the closing price on January 26, 2022, the corresponding valuation was 81.1 times, 58.0 times and 43.2 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk factors: Winona’s income does not meet expectations; The increase of flow cost leads to the decrease of net interest rate.
