\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
Event overview:
On January 26, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. Taking the median value of the forecast, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.253 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 133%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 4.172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 142%. According to this calculation, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 595 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 2.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 582 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 0.7%.
The quantity, price and cost of 21q4 float glass are under pressure
Industry operation level: 1) sales volume: from October to November of the 21st year, the capital of the real estate chain was tightened, the power of deep-processing enterprises was limited, and the downstream demand was cold; 2) In terms of price, the glass price was high from July to September of 21, and the low peak season led to a sharp price reduction; At the end of November, the margin of real estate policy was loose, the completion chain warmed up under the pressure of guaranteed housing delivery, superimposed on the low inventory of downstream deep-processing enterprises, there was a demand for warehouse, and the glass price rebounded. On the whole, the average price of glass in 21q4 was about 2350 yuan / ton, down 21% month on month compared with Q3. 3) In terms of cost: the price of Q4 soda ash remained at an all-time high and fell to a certain extent in mid December. The profit was damaged due to the superposition of three factors. We calculated that the average price difference between Q4 glass and soda ash was 87 yuan / heavy box, down 32% from Q3.
22h1 glass supply-demand relationship is neutral and optimistic
As of the 22nd of the supply end, two production lines were cold repaired in January. During the Winter Olympic Games, the environmental protection pressure of glass factories in Hebei increased. At the same time, the cost of Shahe "coal to gas" increased, and the number of Q1 cold repair and technological transformation production lines may increase. The demand side real estate is guaranteed to be completed and delivered, and the 21h2 vacancy order is expected to be replenished in the first half of the year. The recent decline in glass inventory is mainly due to the increase in the price of the original film and the replenishment in the downstream. As of January 20 last week, the total inventory of production enterprises in key monitoring provinces was 35.58 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.72 million weight boxes compared with January 13, a decrease of 7.1% (Zhuo Chuang information). Although the current inventory is relatively high, we believe that the impact of the dislocation of the Spring Festival should be considered, On the eve of the Spring Festival last year, the inventory was 33.64 million boxes (35.58 million heavy boxes this year), and decreased by 17.6% to 28.6 million boxes one month after the Spring Festival.
Based on the current situation of supply and demand, we believe that the glass price is neutral and optimistic after the Spring Festival. If the real estate completion data is high before and low after the holiday, the demand drives the volume and price, and superimposes the "coal to gas" and double carbon pressure to supply, there may be a gap between supply and demand. If the demand falls relatively in the second half of the year, the cold repair should increase synchronously, and the relationship between supply and demand should be rebalanced.
The growth curve focuses on photovoltaic and medicinal glass
Under the "one body and two wings" strategy, the business of photovoltaic glass, medicinal glass and electronic glass will take over and grow. In 2022, the company will focus on the photovoltaic glass and medicinal glass sector. By the end of 2022, after five photovoltaic calendered glass production lines of the company are put into operation, the total capacity is expected to reach 8500t / d. The price of photovoltaic glass is low, and the input of industrial capacity is lower than expected. At the same time, the yield of borosilicate medicinal glass continues to improve, which is expected to accelerate the breakthrough at the client.
Investment suggestion: the high boom of float glass continues. The company leads the industry in terms of cost and management. At the same time, the overseas layout is accelerated, and the capacity of deep-processing energy-saving glass is gradually released. In terms of growth, the company will accelerate its entry into the fields of photovoltaic, pharmaceutical and high-end electronic glass, and its long-term competitiveness is expected to be further enhanced. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.30 billion yuan, 4.84 billion yuan and 5.03 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the share price on January 26, 2022 will be 11x, 10x and 9x respectively. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the cost change is less than expected; Real estate policy continues to tighten; The production of photovoltaic glass and the improvement of drug glass yield were less than expected.
