\u3000\u3000 Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) (300590)
Event: on the evening of January 26, Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will reach 155 ~ 183 million, an increase of 71.3 ~ 102.2% compared with 90 million yuan in 2020, and the net profit excluding non attributable to the parent company is expected to be 140 ~ 167 million yuan, an increase of 135.3% ~ 180.7% compared with 60 million yuan in 2020.
Q4 profit achieved marginal improvement on the same month on month basis, and performed well in the whole year excluding exchange rate disturbance. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 43 ~ 71 million yuan, an increase of 53.2% ~ 152.5% year-on-year in 2020 and 9.8% ~ 81.0% month on month compared with 39 million yuan in 2021q3. About 80% of the company's revenue comes from overseas markets and is settled in US dollars. The average central parity of US dollars against RMB in 2020 is 6.90 and that in 2021 is 6.45. The impact of exchange rate factors on the company's reported revenue is about 6%. After restoration, the company's actual income level performs well.
The growth logic in the field of micro travel has been fully confirmed, and 2b + 2C has made all-round efforts. Over the past two years, the company has continued to focus on the field of micro travel, and has been able to provide intelligent terminal hardware for important products in micro travel scenarios such as electric two wheeled vehicles and shared electric skateboards. In 2021, the company achieved a major breakthrough in micro travel business, and signed a purchase order with Zhejiang Jinbang totaling 270 million yuan, which fully confirmed the company's business layout and growth logic. At the same time, the company actively expands important customers at both ends of B \\ C: b-end continues to make efforts in the field of shared travel, and intelligent terminal products have been in-depth cooperation with overseas well-known shared electric skateboard manufacturers bird and lime; End face C provides short-distance travel to end consumers of electric two wheeled vehicles in China and works with brands such as No. 9, Maverick and Yadi.
The company's business layout blossoms at many points, and the future growth can be expected. 1. Vehicle field: the company's orders for traditional vehicle intelligent terminal products have been steadily promoted. Meanwhile, the new vehicle video products are expected to rely on the accumulation of the company's global customers to rapidly expand in the fields of fleet operation management and insurance; 2. Industrial Internet: Industrial router products have been successfully launched in 2021 and can be widely used in many scenarios such as public transportation, vending, self-service and industrial automation. At present, it has obtained pilot small orders from China's core mainframe manufacturers and may continue to expand in the future; 3. Application extension of RFID Technology: at present, it has expanded from the field of animal traceability management to the field of asset management. The two manufacturers received orders of about 100 million yuan from CCB in 2021. The company is one of them. We expect this cooperation to accelerate the application of RFID technology in the field of asset management and its extension to other fields.
Investment suggestion: we expect that the company's operating revenue is expected to reach 924 million yuan, 1568 million yuan and 2201 million yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 173 million yuan, 307 million yuan and 448 million yuan respectively. The corresponding PE multiple is 48x / 27x / 19x. Select Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) and Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) as comparable companies, and the average PE valuation in 21 years is 39x (wind unanimously expected). We believe that under the disturbance of overseas epidemic, RMB appreciation, raw material price rise and other factors in 2021, the company can still rise against the trend. We are optimistic that the company will continue to enrich the product matrix and open the downstream layout space, and the long-term operation is expected to be better in an all-round way. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the recovery process of the global epidemic is lower than expected; The overseas market is disturbed by international relations; The shortage of core parts and the impact of price rise exceeded expectations; Exchange rate fluctuations exceeded expectations; The launch of new products was not as expected
