\u3000\u3000 Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450)
Event overview
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 1.45 billion yuan to 1.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 88.92% to 114.98%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.405 billion yuan to 1.605 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 99.72% to 128.15%.
Analysis and judgment:
21q4 continued its high growth and its performance met expectations
21q4 expects the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 446 million yuan to 646 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 248.44% to 404.69%, and a month on month change of - 11.33% to 28.43%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 430 million yuan to 630 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 334.34% to 536.36%, and a month on month change of - 11.7% to 29.36%. We believe that the high performance growth is mainly due to the continuous rise in the prosperity of the lithium battery industry since 20q4, which has driven the high demand for equipment, the company's full orders and the expansion of revenue scale; At the same time, by improving the system and optimizing management, the company has promoted the decline of expense rate and significantly improved the overall profitability. In the first three quarters of the year, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin reached 37.50% / 16.88% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.08pct / + 1.47pct respectively. The profit level of the whole year of the year is expected to be maintained.
The demand for lithium battery equipment has increased rapidly, and both internal and external repair has helped to grow
1) new energy vehicles have broad prospects and strong certainty. We expect that the global sales of new energy vehicles will increase from 3.12 million in 2020 to 25 million in 2025, giving rise to a huge demand for power lithium batteries. According to our calculation, the demand for lithium battery equipment is expected to reach 136.1 billion yuan in 2025, with CArG ≈ 51%.
2) in the first three quarters of 2020, due to the downturn of the lithium battery industry, the poor order quality of lithium battery equipment companies, and the lag in the matching between cost advance and order revenue, the management and R & D cost rate of lithium battery equipment companies in 21 years was generally high. We believe that with the improvement of order quality and the gradual decline of expense rate, the profitability of lithium battery equipment manufacturers still has great room for improvement.
3) the company is a leading enterprise of lithium battery equipment, with the production capacity of the whole line and single machine, and the market share of many products such as winding machine is the first. The company is deeply tied to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) the leader in the lithium battery industry (the unaudited actual amount between Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) reached 8.223 billion yuan in 2021, and the contract amount between the company and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is expected to be 9 billion yuan in 2022). At the same time, it has increased its overseas layout, improved the quality of orders, and is expected to continue to increase its profitability in the future. The company has the ability to produce international standard products and strong independent research and development. In the future, the wave of overseas lithium battery expansion will benefit the overseas layout and expand the growth space.
Breakthroughs have been made in multi field layout, and the future growth of platform companies can be expected
At present, the company has formed three major businesses of lithium, photovoltaic and 3C, and established eight business divisions of lithium, photovoltaic, 3C, laser, logistics, automobile and hydrogen energy, which has gradually become a platform company. In addition to the lithium battery equipment business, the company has also made breakthroughs in other business segments and continued to develop well.
1) photovoltaic intelligent equipment: the industry's first digital TOPCON high-efficiency photovoltaic cell intelligent production line customized by the company, and the first batch of cells have been successfully offline recently. This is the overall photovoltaic intelligent manufacturing solution customized and developed by the company for Suntech Power. Its production line is intelligent and unmanned, and its equipment automation level is leading in the industry.
2) laser precision machining: the company's color film laser engraving machine (LOC) has been highly recognized by customers and received additional orders. The equipment can conduct laser insulation cutting on the edge after cfito coating to form an independent charging area, and use charging to adjust the pretilt angle of liquid crystal. The company is the only manufacturer in China that has successfully developed and mass produced, taking the lead in realizing the domestic substitution of front-end equipment in the panel industry, and its growth can be expected in the future.
3) hydrogen energy equipment: the review results of the first major equipment (set) in Jiangsu Province were publicized in 2021, and the company's "lhmfa015a fuel cell membrane electrode coil to coil packaging complete equipment" was listed on the list. Up to now, Pioneer has successively provided many fuel cell customers such as Jiehe technology, aerospace hydrogen energy, national power investment and Hongji Chuang energy with the whole line solutions of hydrogen fuel cell equipment, including fuel cell CCM pulping and coating equipment, mea equipment and stack test system.
Investment advice
Maintaining the previous earnings forecast unchanged, it is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 89.45/153.12/19.851 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.525/25.85/33.36 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.98/1.65/2.13 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of 74.55 yuan / share on January 26, 2022, and PE of 76 / 45 / 35 times respectively. We maintain the overweight rating.
Risk tips
The downstream investment and production expansion progress is less than expected, the technological progress is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
