\u3000\u3000 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (300014)
It is expected that the profitability is expected to rebound from Q4 in 2021 to Q1 in 2022
According to the performance forecast released by the company, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.73-3.06 billion yuan in 2021, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company is about 2.44-2.67 billion yuan. The quarterly deduction of non net profit was RMB 614 / 8.11 / 7.05 / 3.1-540 million respectively. The profit of the company was under pressure in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the rise in the price of upstream raw materials (represented by lithium carbonate and cathode materials). We expect that the most scarce period of raw materials since Q1 in 2022 will soon pass, there is a time difference in the upstream and downstream price transmission mechanism, and the downstream price rise will be gradually reflected on the profit side. It is expected that the profit margin in 2022 will rise from Q4 in 2021 to Q1 in 2022. We have lowered the profit forecast. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 is expected to reach 2.888 (- 1.71) / 4.348 (- 0.04) / 6.603 (- 0.04) billion yuan, EPS is 1.52/2.29/3.48 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding P / E ratio of the current stock price is 62.6/41.6/27.4 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Downstream customers have strong demand, and 4680 and other new technologies are the key breakthrough direction in 2022
The company has a balanced layout in terms of iron lithium / ternary soft bag / ternary square / large cylinder (4680). (1) The company’s iron and lithium customers are mainly (a) automobile enterprises: Passenger Vehicles / commercial vehicles such as new forces of car making (Xiaopeng); (b) Energy storage: electric energy storage will be the main energy in 2021, and communication energy storage is expected to contribute to the main incremental space in 2022. In 2021, the production capacity of iron lithium will be 6gwh, and the demand of iron lithium customers will be strong in 2022; (2) Soft package customers are mainly overseas Daimler, Hyundai, Kia and other auto enterprises; (3) The ternary square meets the needs of BMW in China and overseas at the same time. Small batch shipment is expected in 2022; (4) 4680 batteries are expected to gradually increase in volume from 2023.
The capacity planning exceeds 200gwh, and the industrial chain coordination helps the company stand firmly as a first-line battery factory in China
At present, the company’s main production bases are in Huizhou, Jingmen, Chengdu and other places. The production expansion plan announced by the company includes 152gwh power energy storage project of Jingmen base, 50gwh power energy storage project of Chengdu base and 10gwh iron lithium energy storage project jointly invested with Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) . The company has sufficient capital reserves to support the above-mentioned large-scale production expansion. The specific landing rhythm of the project depends on the prosperity of downstream demand, so that the company can maintain a high capacity utilization rate. Upstream companies cooperate to distribute almost all raw materials. The core of the complete upstream layout is to ensure supply (not only quantity, but also quality). In addition, on the one hand, it is expected to take the goods at a certain preferential price (long-term cooperation agreement), on the other hand, it can obtain investment income from the profits of the joint venture.
Risk tip: the upstream price continues to rise, the downstream demand is less than expected, and the profit is less than expected
