\u3000\u3000 Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) (300450)
Event: on January 26, 2022, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) issued the performance forecast for 2021.
Key investment points
The performance in 2021 was in line with market expectations, and Q4's single quarter profit hit a record high
The company's performance forecast is in line with market expectations. It is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.45-1.65 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 89% - 115%, and wind's consensus expectation is 1.55 billion yuan; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.41-1.61 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 100% - 128%; In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 450-650 million yuan in a single quarter, with a year-on-year increase of + 248% - 405%. If estimated according to the median of 550 million yuan, the profit in a single quarter reached a record high.
Equity incentive focuses on the improvement of profitability, and the scale effect is about to highlight
In September 2021, the company launched the restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), focusing on the improvement of future profitability from the perspective of performance objectives: calculated according to the net profit attributable to the parent after excluding the impact of equity payment expenses, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) the net interest rate from 2021 to 2023 shall not be less than 16% / 18% / 20% respectively.
We believe that the net profit margin of leading lithium battery equipment manufacturers like Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) will continue to increase in the future, mainly for three reasons: 1) since 2020q4, power battery plants have entered the peak of production expansion, equipment manufacturers have prominent capacity scarcity and insufficient high-end capacity, and the voice of leading equipment manufacturers such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) will be further improved; 2) The acceleration of downstream production expansion requires higher delivery capacity of equipment manufacturers, and only large-scale manufacturers can better meet the delivery time requirements; 3) The scale effect will bring down the expense rate, and the net interest rate of Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and other leading enterprises will continue to increase.
When the whole line order of overseas customers is obtained and the domestic equipment supplier goes to sea
In November 2021, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) reached cooperation with inobat auto, a European customized battery R & D and production company, on its lithium battery soft package whole line production project. As the only equipment supplier of the project, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) is responsible for customizing and developing whole line solutions. The company's overseas layout is expanding smoothly and is expected to benefit from the large-scale expansion of European power battery plants in the future.
Intensive bidding for catl's production expansion and speed-up, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) as a core equipment supplier has benefited significantly
In September 2020, Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) will raise 2.5 billion yuan and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will subscribe for all the shares issued this time to become the company's long-term strategic investor. The two are deeply bound. Catl has had intensive bidding since the end of 2020, and the company has benefited significantly as a core equipment supplier - according to the company's announcement on the prediction of daily connected transactions in 2021 at the end of October 2021: the estimated amount of connected transactions in 2021 will be revised from no more than 6.5 billion yuan to 8.5 billion yuan (the actual order in 2021 is 8.22 billion yuan); According to the announcement on the prediction of daily connected transactions in 2022 on January 26, 2022, the equipment order amount of the connected transactions between the company and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) in 2022 is expected to be 9 billion yuan. We judge that as catl enters the peak of production expansion, the bidding of new production expansion projects will be implemented one after another, the scarcity of leading equipment manufacturers will gradually appear, and Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) will continue to benefit.
Profit forecast and investment rating: as the downstream power battery plant enters the peak of production expansion, the company, as a leading equipment supplier, will benefit significantly. We raised the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 1.48/23.5/3.24 billion to RMB 1.55/28.0/3.6 billion from RMB 1.48/23.5/3.24 billion in 2021-2023, up 5% / 19% / 11% respectively, corresponding to 75 / 42 / 32 times of the current share price, Considering the firm leading position and performance flexibility of the company, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the expansion of downstream power battery plant is lower than expected.
