\u3000\u3000 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (300979)
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 40% ~ 55% and the net profit deducted from non parent company increased by 40% ~ 55%
The company expects that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be RMB 2.630 ~ 2.912 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40% ~ 55% (RMB caliber, the same below), of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 will be RMB 633 ~ 915 million, with a year-on-year increase of 13% ~ 63%; In 2021, the non net profit deducted was RMB 2.626 ~ 2.908 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 40% ~ 55%. The operating revenue increased rapidly, the gross profit margin increased compared with last year, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased significantly.
The growth is mainly due to: 1) since 2021, the epidemic control in various countries has been effective, the vaccination has been accelerated, the global economy has recovered, and the post epidemic sports demand and sports shoe consumption have continued to recover; 2) The company has strong new product development ability, can quickly respond to changes in customer demand, expand production capacity through new factories, plant expansion and the implementation of lean production and other measures, improve the operation efficiency of various factories, and attract various sports brands to increase orders for the company.
Sports brands recovered after the epidemic, orders increased, brand production capacity dispersed, and the company's share increased
After the epidemic, the sports demand and sports shoes consumption continued to recover, and the performance of the company's main customers increased. According to the latest financial reports of various brands, puma increased by 32% (fy21:21 / 1 / 1-12 / 31, excluding the impact of exchange rate), VF increased by 21% (fy22q2:21 / 7 / 4-10 / 2), and the company's orders also increased significantly; The year-on-year growth rate of Nike footwear was - 1% (fy22q2: 21 / 9 / 1-11 / 30, excluding the impact of exchange rate), which was mainly due to the shortage of inventory due to the shutdown of factories affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia. We believe that under the background of the normalization of the global epidemic, brands may appropriately diversify their production capacity layout to deal with the risk of production capacity fluctuation in a single region. Huali production capacity is located in northern Vietnam and is less affected by the epidemic. It is expected to obtain more order shares of leading brands such as Nike in the future.
Southeast Asia continues to actively expand production, strengthen R & D and technology, and highlight core competitive advantages
The company's production capacity increased rapidly year-on-year in 21 years. In the future, the company will continue to actively expand its production capacity by purchasing land, building new plants, leasing plants, adding production lines in the original plants and purchasing plants to ensure the order receiving capacity. Three new factories put into operation in Vietnam in 21 years will reach production capacity in the next few years; The Indonesian plant will be built in stages as planned. The first phase of the plant is expected to be put into operation at the end of 22 years and contribute capacity in 23 years; The construction of Myanmar factories will be accelerated after the local situation is stable.
The company has strong product development ability, can quickly respond to changes in market demand, and cooperate with the brand to develop design to ensure technical feasibility; Improve the level of automation, so as to improve production efficiency and contribute to gross profit margin. After the epidemic and epidemic, it can better highlight the core competitive advantages of the company and attract sports brands to increase orders to the company.
Maintain profit forecast and give buy rating. The demand of sports market is strong, showing a recovery trend, the terminal is growing rapidly, and the supply chain continues to benefit; We are optimistic about the growth from Nike. Incremental orders can be expected in the future. At the same time, the optimization of customer and product structure drives the steady growth of gross profit margin. We estimate that the company's revenue in 21-23 years will be 18.8, 23.5 and 29.4 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.7, 3.4 and 4.2 billion yuan, the EPS will be 2.3, 2.9 and 3.6 yuan / share respectively, and the PE will be 35x, 28x and 23x respectively.
Risk tips: orders are not as expected, costs and expenses increase, loss of core executives, etc; The performance forecast is only the preliminary accounting result, which shall be subject to the annual performance announcement.
