\u3000\u3000 Three'S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) (605168)
Event: the company issued the draft restricted stock incentive plan for 2022 on January 25, 2022, which plans to grant 469000 restricted shares to 52 directors, senior executives, middle managers and business backbones of the company at the price of 96.33 yuan / share. The performance evaluation conditions for the lifting of sales restrictions from 2022 to 2024 are that the net profit is not less than 730 / 10 / 1.3 billion yuan respectively.
Combined with the performance evaluation conditions of 2022 restricted stock incentive, the company's 2020-2024e net profit CAGR is 37.6%. Compared with the two recipients of the 2020 restricted stock incentive plan, the current restricted stock incentive plan also grants restricted stock incentives to middle-level managers and business backbones in addition to senior executives, which is conducive to stimulating the enthusiasm of the management team and business team. If the performance assessment of lifting the restrictions is met, the proportion of lifting the restrictions from 2022 to 2024 will be 40% / 30% / 30% respectively.
The total estimated amortization cost of restricted stocks is 27.9 million yuan, and the accounting cost is amortized in four years. The accounting cost of each period from 2022 to 2025 is 1263.4/1067.2/378.8/805000 yuan respectively. The company said in the announcement that the amortization expense has little impact on the net profit of each year.
In terms of performance, Three'S Company Media Group Co.Ltd(605168) in the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue was RMB 2.142 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16.59%, the net profit attributable to the parent was RMB 261 million, a year-on-year increase of 42.72%, and the deduction of non attributable to the parent was RMB 238 million, a year-on-year increase of 35.87%. The company also issued a performance pre increase announcement on January 12, 2022. It is expected to realize an operating revenue of 3.5-3.7 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 24.7% - 31.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 500-510 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 37.8% - 40.6%; Non return deduction of RMB 460-470 million, with a year-on-year increase of 31.7% - 34.6%.
Our previous report stressed that the company has the advantages of core key customers and its profitability has gradually increased. The announcement of this incentive plan has further enhanced investor confidence.
Investment suggestion: the macro-economy fluctuates. The company strengthens the advantages of key customers such as the original core state-owned enterprises, and gradually develops into an Internet integrated marketer. We adjusted the original profit forecast according to the performance pre increase announcement and the performance evaluation of 2022 equity incentive plan. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 500 / 7.4 / 1.07 billion respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 29x / 20x / 14x. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the advertiser's willingness to put in is uncertain; The landing of digital product trading platform is less than expected; Stricter policy supervision; Subjective estimation is uncertain; The performance forecast is the preliminary accounting, and the specific data shall be subject to the annual report
