\u3000\u3000 Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (603290)
Events
Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) release the annual performance forecast for 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 390 million yuan – 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 115.85% – 121.38%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be 370 million yuan – 380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 138.07% – 144.51%.
Key investment points
The performance forecast for 2021 exceeded expectations, and the proportion of new energy business further increased
According to the calculation of the company’s annual performance forecast in 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 is expected to be 123 million yuan – 133 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 162% – 183%, a month-on-month increase of 8.8% – 17.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction of 119 million yuan – 129 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 198% – 223% and a month-on-month increase of 9.2% – 18.3%. The growth of the company’s performance mainly benefited from the company’s grasp of market opportunities in 2021, the continuous and rapid volume of products in the downstream, especially in new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation, energy storage and other industries, the rapid growth of operating revenue, and the further increase of the proportion of new energy industry in the company’s business structure. At the same time, the company continued to increase R & D investment, accumulate product and technical advantages, continuously develop high value-added products with market competitiveness, optimize product structure and further enhance the company’s core competitiveness.
Fixed growth of 3.5 billion yuan will help growth, and domestic IGBT leaders will make rapid progress
As a leading enterprise in the field of IGBT in China, the company has localized medium and low voltage IGBT chips such as 600V / 650V, 1200V and 1700V. In the first half of 2021, the sales revenue of IGBT modules accounted for more than 95% of the company’s main business revenue. According to Jibang consulting data, it is estimated that China’s IGBT market will reach 52.2 billion yuan by 2025 and CAGR will reach 19.11% from 2018 to 2025.
In terms of subdivided application fields, in the field of frequency converter, the company has become the main supplier of IGBT module for many well-known frequency converter enterprises in China; In the field of inverter welding machines, the company is one of the few suppliers that can provide multi series IGBT Modules suitable for different types of welding machines; In the field of new energy power generation, the company has become an important supplier to many leading enterprises of photovoltaic power generation and wind power inverter in China. In the first half of 2021, the company began to install and apply large quantities of modules and discrete devices of independent IGBT chips in mainstream photovoltaic inverter customers in China; In the field of new energy vehicles, the company has successfully ranked among the main suppliers of automobile grade IGBT modules in China, competing with international enterprises on the same platform, and its market share has been expanding. In the first half of 2021, the company’s vehicle specification grade Sgt MOSFET has begun to be supplied in small quantities. Based on the 650V / 750V IGBT chip and the module supporting fast recovery diode chip of the sixth generation trench field stop technology, the company has added a number of main motor controller platforms of double electric control hybrid and pure electric vehicle, It is expected to provide a continuous driving force for the growth of the company’s new energy vehicle IGBT module sales from 2023 to 2029. At the same time, the company has successfully developed a new generation of vehicle specification level 650V / 750V IGBT chip based on the seventh generation micro trench field stop technology. It is expected to start mass supply in 2022. In addition, the company’s vehicle specification level SiC module has been designated by many famous vehicle enterprises and Tier1 customers in China and abroad, It will provide a continuous driving force for the company’s sales growth of vehicle specification SiC modules from 2022 to 2028.
The 3.5 billion fixed value-added project was officially launched. The company will invest 1.5 billion yuan for the R & D and industrialization of high-voltage characteristic process power chips, 500 million yuan for the R & D and industrialization of SiC chips, and 700 million yuan for the automation transformation of power semiconductor module production line, It is expected that after the completion of the project, the annual production capacity of 300000 pieces of 6-inch high-voltage characteristic process power chips / 60000 pieces of 6-inch SiC chips / 4 million pieces of power semiconductor modules will be formed.
We believe that at present, the company has become a leading enterprise in the field of IGBT in China, especially in the field of new energy vehicles and power generation, with rapid business progress, overweight layout of fixed increase projects, capacity expansion of high-voltage power chips, SiC chips and modules, clear long-term path planning of the company, and complete the breakthrough of module capacity bottleneck while continuously enriching product structure, It is expected to grow at a high speed under the resonance of the high boom downstream and the domestic substitution wave.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.769 billion yuan, 2.626 billion yuan and 3.602 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.32, 3.33 and 4.44 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 143, 100 and 75 times respectively, giving the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
The downside risk of industry prosperity, the risk that the progress of new products is less than expected, the risk of intensified industry competition, the risk of overseas policy changes, etc.
