\u3000\u3000 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636)
Q4 operates steadily and its performance basically meets expectations. On January 26, the company released the performance forecast for 21 years. It is expected to achieve revenue of 13.85-15.3 billion in 21 years, with a year-on-year revenue of + 43.6% ~ + 58.7%, with a median value of 14.57 billion; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.04-4.47 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 121.4% ~ + 144.7%, with a median value of 4.25 billion; It is expected to realize a net profit of 3.96-4.38 billion after deducting non return to parent, with a year-on-year increase of + 129.7% ~ + 153.9%, with a median value of 4.17 billion. Among them, the median value of single Q4 revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of non profit is 38.1/6.0/590 million, yoy + 23.3% / - 2.3% / - 0.8%.
The float pressure period has passed, and the profit in 22 years is expected to pick up. We estimate that the sales volume of the original float film of 21q4 company is about 30 million cases, and the shipment remains stable. Affected by the price reduction of the original film and the price rise of soda ash, we estimate that the net profit of 21q4 float single box is about 20 yuan. Looking forward to 2022, the demand side toughness still exists. According to the prediction of Zhongtai real estate group, the completion growth rate in 2022 is expected to reach 3.8%; At present, the capacity of production lines with kiln age of 8-10 years / more accounts for 13.7% / 14.1%. Cold repair of production lines with old age in 2022 may lead to supply contraction; Under the dynamic balance of supply and demand, we expect the price to remain at a good level. On the cost side, the price of raw material soda ash also fell rapidly to 2379 yuan / ton (the price on January 26), and the higher point fell by about 37%. At the same time, the company also actively uses hedging and other methods to lock in the price of soda ash. We expect that the cost side of the company will be controllable as a whole in 22 years. We believe that the current float price / cost pressure period has passed, and profits are expected to gradually pick up.
The production expansion of photovoltaic glass is advancing steadily and is expected to create a second growth curve. According to the company's investor interaction platform, the current 2500t / D ultra white floating photovoltaic glass production capacity has been fully converted to production before the end of 21. At present, the company still has five 1200t / D calendering production lines under construction. We expect that 1 / 4 of them will be put into operation by the end of 22h1 / 22. After all of them are put into operation, the company has a total capacity of 8500d / T photovoltaic glass, and the capacity scale will rank among the first echelon of the industry. The company has obvious advantages. On the one hand, the company actively arranges silica sand mines, which can ensure the stable supply of raw materials / reduce procurement costs; On the other hand, in addition to changing production lines, the company mostly has 1200t / d large kilns. With the exertion of scale effect, the company's ton cost is expected to remain at the level of first-line manufacturers. We expect that the company's photovoltaic glass revenue will account for more than 20% / 40% in 2022 / 2023, which is expected to become the second growth curve.
New categories are expanding rapidly, and the growth of emerging businesses is expected to accelerate. In addition to architectural glass / photovoltaic glass, the company actively distributes emerging fields such as energy-saving glass / electronic glass / medicinal glass. In terms of energy-saving glass, we expect that Hunan energy-saving phase II project is expected to be put into operation in 22 years, with an additional annual production capacity of 5 million square meters of coated glass and 500000 square meters of hollow glass. In terms of electronic glass, the company's high aluminum electronic glass production line has been put into commercial operation for 20 years. With the active expansion of downstream channels, it is expected to gradually increase the volume. In terms of medicinal glass, the company successfully ignited the 25t / D (one kiln and two lines) neutral borosilicate medicinal glass plain tube production line in Chenzhou, Hunan. With the improvement of product yield, the medicinal glass business is expected to further contribute to the increment.
Investment suggestion: we slightly reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company from 21 to 23 years to RMB 4.30/4.57/5.17 billion (original 4.50/5.01/6.24 billion). Mainly considering the decline in the price of float glass, we slightly reduced the average price assumption of float glass. The adjusted profit forecast corresponds to 11 / 10 / 9 times of the current share price PE. Considering the long-term growth of the company, the rating of "overweight" is maintained.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply; The new production capacity is less than expected; The expansion of new products was less than expected.
