\u3000\u3000 Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) (002078)
Key investment points
Q4 paper prices are weak, raw material costs are high, and profits are improving month by month. From the perspective of subdivided paper types, (1) cultural paper: the average price of Q4 coated / double glue is 5362 and 5517 yuan, with a month on month ratio of - 1.54% and - 1.08%. The demand during the period is flat, and the market readiness to prepare goods is flat under the expectation of production at the end of the year, Superimposed with the impact of low-cost imported paper (87200, 95300 and 70500 tons of imported double offset paper in October, November and December, with a year-on-year increase of - 28.84%, - 22.82% and - 17.49%), the price runs at a low level. Considering that the rise in energy costs (high coal price, Q4 average price + 25.69% month on month) is superimposed on the use of high price slurry, and the profit per ton is under pressure, it is expected to change from negative to positive from October to December, improve month by month, stabilize and improve. (2) Carton board paper: the quarterly average price of Q4 carton board is 5171 yuan, with a month on month increase of + 1.16%. It rises slightly in the peak season and is expected to be the main contributor to Q4 profits. However, it is worth noting that during the period, the US waste price was high (about US $300), the waste pulp line in Laos was discontinued, and the profit of high-end box board was slightly compressed. (3) Dissolved pulp: the average price of Q4 dissolved pulp was 6826 yuan, with a month on month ratio of - 11.13%. The price weakened in the off-season. The company's production line shift in Yanzhou affected the sales performance, but the profit margin remained at a relatively high level, contributing to Q4 performance.
The paper price is at a historically low quantile, and the Q1 ton profit is expected to rise
Looking forward to 22q1, (1) cultural paper: at present, the price of coated sector / double glue is at the historical quantile of 12.7% and 28.8% respectively. Small factories shut down to reduce losses and large factories operate at low profits. The operating rates of the industry are 63.91% and 63.12% respectively, at a historical low point; Since 21q3, the inventory has gradually decreased, superimposed with the short-term pulp price increase, and the pulp paper enterprises have successively issued the price increase letter of 200 yuan / ton, which is judged to be able to land smoothly. Recently, the energy cost has dropped slightly. We expect the bottom of Q1 paper enterprises' profits to rise. The sun Guangxi No. 1 cultural paper machine is expected to switch to production of cultural paper again after the year. The dark time of the industry has passed, and we expect Q1 to improve. (2) Carton board: at present, the price of carton board is at the historical 65.2% quantile, and the social / enterprise inventory is at the historical 87.6% and 65.7% quantile. In Q1 off-season, it is judged that the paper price is stable; (3) Dissolved pulp: the impact of Q1 off-season is expected to continue, the solar scale & benefit strength is outstanding, and the expected profit margin is stable.
Guangxi base is getting better and better, and the scale benefit is rising
Although the 21q4 Guangxi project has been put into operation, the conversion of fixed assets and cost investment have a slight drag on the profit, at present, the 550000 tons of cultural paper, 800000 tons of chemical pulp and 200000 tons of chemical mechanical pulp of the phase II project have been successfully put into operation in 21q4, and it is expected to increase in volume in 22h1. It is expected that the scale and benefit will be improved in 22 years. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of wood pulp has exceeded 50%.
Profit forecast and valuation
Under the background of pressure in the macro environment, the company is still the leading paper enterprise with the strongest profitability at the current time point. We expect that the company will realize revenue of 29.515/30911/32.761 billion yuan in 21-23 years respectively, with an increase of 36.72% / 4.73% / 5.99% at the same time. The net profit attributable to the parent company is 29.92/27.61/2.936 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 53.21% / - 7.74% / + 6.34%. The current share price corresponds to PE of 9.91/10.74/10.10 X. it is recommended to bargain hunting layout!
Risk tips
The rise of paper price is less than expected, the demand is less than expected, and the competition is intensified.
