\u3000\u3000 Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738) (603738)
Events
Tkd Science And Technology Co.Ltd(603738) release the annual performance forecast for 2021: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 215 million yuan - 265 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 456.81% - 586.30%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction will be 211 million yuan - 261 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 855.47% - 1081.88%.
Key investment points
The performance in 2021 was significantly better than that in the same period last year, and the growth of the company was boosted by high demand and domestic substitution
According to the calculation of the company's annual performance forecast in 2021, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 in 2021 is expected to be 43.9473 million yuan - 93.9473 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 59.64% - 241.27%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction is 41.8334 million yuan - 91.8334 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 144.09% - 435.83%. In 2021, under the background of the improvement of the prosperity of the electronic components industry and domestic substitution, the company continued to cultivate in 5g communication, big data, Internet of things, automotive electronics and other major markets, and the business development trend in various fields was clear. At the same time, the company further expanded the production capacity of high-end products, continuously optimized the product, customer and market structure, and provided sufficient power for the rapid growth of the company's performance.
Downstream products continued to upgrade, driving the expansion of the demand scale of upstream quartz crystal oscillator
As the "salt of industry", quartz crystal oscillator is the core and basic element of semiconductor. In the field of consumer electronics, the demand for miniaturized and high-frequency crystal oscillator products such as 5g mobile phones, TWS headphones and wearable devices has increased. According to the data of jingsai technology announcement, the global demand for crystal oscillator for smart phones and wearable devices in 2021 will be about 10 billion and 500-1 billion respectively; In the field of automotive electronics, intelligent networked vehicles need more frequency components. According to the announcement data of jingsai technology, the demand for vehicle specification level crystal oscillators in the Chinese market alone will reach 2.531 billion in 2020. In the future, with the increase of vehicle sales, the demand scale of crystal oscillators will continue to expand. With the rapid development of intelligent terminals, wearable devices, automotive electronics, wi-fi6 and other fields, according to the data of China industry information network, the demand of quartz crystal oscillator is expected to reach 312.5 billion in 2025, and the gap between supply and demand will reach 100 billion. The development of crystal oscillator industry will usher in new opportunities.
The release of high-end production capacity has led to the optimization of product structure and continued to expand downstream customers and new downstream application fields. The company has full momentum for long-term growth. In 2021, the company continued to increase the production capacity expansion of advantageous products, and the smooth implementation of new raised investment projects has been promoted. The construction of phase II project of MEMS micro nano lithography workshop and the layout of SMD series high-end small-size expansion production line have been completed. We believe that with the release of new production capacity, the production capacity of chip micro kHz resonator, small-size high-frequency MHz resonator, thermal TSX resonator, TCXO oscillator and other high value-added products has increased, and the product structure of the company has become more optimized. In addition, the company has further increased the introduction of high-quality customers and product market penetration. At present, more than 40 chip products have passed the product platform certification of solution providers such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Huawei Hisilicon, Ziguang zhanrui, Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , Lexin, hengxuan, moment core, Quanzhi, Datang microelectronics, onSun micro and Fudan micro, and the products have passed the chip loading approval of mainstream communication manufacturers, And the price advantage and quality improvement of products lay a solid foundation for the company to continue to introduce high-quality customers.
We believe that under the tide of strong downstream demand and domestic substitution, with the continuous release of high-end product capacity, the optimization of product structure and the continuous expansion of downstream customers, the company has full long-term growth momentum.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.410 billion yuan, 2.061 billion yuan and 2.898 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 1.26, 1.93 and 2.43 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 39, 26 and 20 times respectively, giving the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Downside risks of industry prosperity, lower than expected progress of capacity expansion, increased industry competition, etc. Prediction index
