\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) (300151)
The company has increased investment in short-term production line construction and actively prepared for internationalization and centralized mining expansion
On January 25, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 105-120 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.82% – 28.94%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 75-90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.78% – 40.93%. Quarter by quarter, 2021q4 company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 14-29 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of – 39.13% ~ 26.09%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was -01 ~ 14 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 103.8% – 46.15%. The profit release in 2021 is affected by the following factors: (1) 2021 is the construction period of the company’s production line; (2) The production line involved in the cooperation with Roche has early access and assessment investment, which requires high difficulty and stability of mold research and development, and increases the production cost in the short term; (3) In 2020, the sales of epidemic products pushed up the comparable base of performance in the same period; (4) The gross profit margin of non epidemic related products decreased; (5) Price rise of upstream raw materials; (6) The appreciation of RMB caused exchange losses. We expect that the order volume of the company will increase significantly from 2022 to 2023, and the future performance can be expected to be flexible. However, considering the factors affecting the company’s profit in 2021, the company’s profit forecast is lowered. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be adjusted from 158 / 303 / 641 million yuan to 112 / 2.5/400 million yuan from 2021 to 2023, and the EPS will be 0.22/0.50/0.80 yuan respectively. The corresponding P / E of the current stock price is 135.8/60.9/38.1 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
The company actively promotes the cultivation and construction of talent team and increases the investment in product R & D
The company is accelerating the pace of talent training and strengthening the construction of precision medical mold engineering technology R & D team. The R & D investment in 2021 is expected to increase by 18% compared with the same period in 2020, reaching 47 million. We believe that: (1) technological upgrading through R & D investment to solve the problem of mold stability and reduce mold cost; (2) Through the expansion and construction of technology R & D team, make talent reserves for international cooperation, improvement of technical requirements and capacity expansion.
The company has long been the beneficiary of centralized procurement in China, and is expected to further expand the market share of IVD consumables with the help of Roche
(1) Roche accelerates the localization strategy of supply chain to comply with the increasing competition trend brought by centralized procurement. As its strategic partner, the company is expected to expand its market share in the Chinese market and even the Asia Pacific region with the help of Roche platform. (2) The implementation of IVD centralized purchase is expected to improve the quality standard of consumables in China. Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) provides a new standard for IVD consumables in China, which is expected to benefit from the implementation of IVD centralized purchase and expand production capacity.
Risk warning: the promotion of production line is not as expected; The order volume of IVD manufacturers is lower than expected
