Can the sales volume of new energy vehicles continue to increase in 2022?

In 2022, a large wave of new energy vehicle enterprises began to announce price increases.

Recently, Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594. SZ) released a "description of model price adjustment" on the official microblog: Byd Company Limited(002594) cars will adjust the official guidance price of new energy models related to dynasty.com and ocean.com by 1000-7000 yuan. The price adjustment will take effect on February 1. Customers who pay a deposit before that will not be affected by the price adjustment.

Meanwhile, Tesla (tsla. US), Xiaopeng automobile (09868. HK / xpev. US), Nezha automobile, gac-e'an and other new energy vehicle enterprises also announced price increases one after another.

why did terminal car enterprises start the price rise tide

In fact, in addition to the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the rise of raw materials is a major inducement for auto enterprises to raise prices.

Since 2021, the production cost of new energy vehicles has been rising. Taking the raw materials of power batteries as an example, the purchase price has risen sharply. By the end of 2021, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 469000 yuan / ton, up 13% month on month and 77% year-on-year. The price of cobalt powder also rose from the average price of 285000 yuan in January 2021 to 500000 yuan / ton in December. Lithium hexafluorophosphate, the raw material of electrolyte, is also rising. By the beginning of December 2021, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has increased from about 95000 yuan / ton in November 2020 to about 550000 yuan / ton. The increase of battery grade lithium carbonate in China is also amazing. Its price reached 280000 yuan / ton in December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 410%.

The soaring price of raw materials has led to an increase in the price of power batteries. Byd Company Limited(002594) in the price increase letter previously sent to downstream vehicle customers, it was pointed out that the raw materials of lithium battery continued to rise in 2021, the price of cathode material LiCoO2 (lithium cobalt oxide) increased by more than 200%, and the price of electrolyte increased by more than 150%. In addition, the supply of cathode materials continued to be tight, resulting in a significant increase in the comprehensive cost. More than Byd Company Limited(002594) is facing this dilemma. Battery enterprises such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) have issued power battery price adjustment.

Lin Shuwen, a researcher at East China automotive new materials technology research institute, said: "There are three main reasons for the price increase. First, due to the shortage of chips, although the overall production and sales of automobiles have decreased slightly since 2021, the production and sales of new energy vehicles have continued to rise sharply, and the overall raw materials required by the industrial chain have continued to increase; second, in terms of raw materials, with the strict management regulations of China, the production of minerals has basically realized standardized production, and the output has decreased to a certain extent, At the same time, due to the epidemic situation, transportation, trade and other factors, the import of minerals has decreased. In this case, the price rise is inevitable; Third, with the acceleration of technological progress in the automotive industry, the requirements for the quality and standardization of raw materials and other relevant technical indicators of automobiles and parts are improving, which also leads to the price rise of some raw materials in the short term. "

It is worth noting that the price rise of power batteries is only one of the problems faced by the vehicle manufacturing industry, and it is also common for raw materials to be out of stock and unable to supply. Yang Hongxin, CEO of honeycomb energy, said in 2021 that the price rise of key raw materials for power batteries is a market behavior and there is no response in the short term. The biggest challenge we are facing now is not price increase, but failure to buy goods, but supply gap, which needs to be vigilant.

Therefore, in order to alleviate the problem of raw material supply, some power battery enterprises began to bind material suppliers through subscription, equity participation and other forms. The Ministry of industry and information technology also said recently that when new energy vehicles have entered a new stage of accelerated development, the Ministry of industry and information technology will strengthen overall coordination, improve the guarantee ability of key resources, strengthen communication with provinces and cities such as Qinghai, Sichuan and Jiangxi, and coordinate and promote the acceleration of China's lithium resource development.

can sales continue to increase

After car companies raise the price, the most direct impact is whether the sales of new energy vehicles will fall. In 2021, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has been on the rise. The annual sales volume reached 3.545 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times, setting a new record.

The continuous growth of sales also reflects the rising recognition of consumers for new energy vehicles. However, with the price rise of new energy vehicles, there is no doubt that it will have a certain impact on terminal sales. In this regard, the passenger Federation said that with the implementation of the decline of new energy subsidies, the price of some models will be fine tuned, the mentality of consumers will also change, and the demand for new energy vehicles will still be slightly affected. However, new energy vehicles continue to be popular. At present, there are a large number of undelivered orders in the early stage, so the sales volume of most new energy vehicles will not be significantly affected by the decline.

However, the price increase may further boost the sales of hybrid models. According to the current price increase released by auto enterprises, the price increases are basically pure electric models. Even if the price of hybrid models is increased, the increase will be less than that of pure electric models. Moreover, the hybrid model has gained many users in 2021 and has been widely praised, which can be seen from the sales volume. According to the data, in 2021, the production and sales of hybrid vehicles were 598000 and 600000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 162.4% and 121.6%. The hybrid sales volume of Byd Company Limited(002594) the leader of hybrid models reached 2729.35 million, a year-on-year increase of 467.62%.

In addition, in order to stimulate the new energy vehicle market, the state is further introducing preferential policies related to new energy, gradually abolishing purchase restrictions and strengthening supporting construction such as charging facilities.

With the support of a series of policies and auto enterprises' own preferences, the sales volume of new energy is expected to continue to break through. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, said that at present, the scale of the new energy vehicle market is still expanding rapidly, and the scale will inevitably bring cost improvement. This round of price increase of new energy vehicles will not last long. In his opinion, the new energy subsidy policy in 2022 is a great positive. It is expected that the sales of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 is expected to reach 5.5 million.

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